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Friday, June 29, 2012

Forecast Revision

Well, we got the rebound we were expecting... although yesterday was a little unnerving.  As I posted at 10:30 AM, with SPX down 16 points at 1315:
We had a similar dip the day before Q1 ended, too.  March 29 opened at 1405, dipped to 1391, and closed at 1403.  Money managers like to end quarters on an up note whenever possible.  This feels like a fake out.
Although I pay all due attention to "feelings" it was the channel lines and harmonic patterns that gave me confidence I needed.  Sure enough, by late in the day we had rebounded to within 2 points of the opening, just like on March 29.  More importantly, we were right back on track with our forecast (the solid yellow line.)

Likewise, the dollar caught up to our forecast (solid yellow line) in one fell swoop.  I was getting a little nervous, watching the growing divergence over the past few days.  The previous H&S was in danger of being busted; and, although we kept one foot on the long-term channel line, we were moving further and further away from the presumed right shoulder target.  No more.

The pattern over the past 10 sessions suggests we'll top out this morning at 1357.28.  That's a Bat pattern retracement from the June 19 1363 high.  I'm also altering our forecast going forward...

Continued on

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