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Friday, August 2, 2013

Just Like Old Times

Welcome to the old pebblewriter.  If you found your way here, you know that Hostgator -- the outfit who host -- is down this morning.  I have no idea when they'll be back up, but I'll post here until they are.  I'm getting status reports here:

A reminder, I will wrap up at 2pm today and will be on vacation Monday through Wednesday of next week.  I will post an updated forecast either this evening or tomorrow, assuming the servers are operating again.

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Here's where we are so far this morning...

I shorted on the opening at 1706.10, then went long at 1700.78 with an interim target of 1712 as detailed last week.

I posted several currency charts earlier this morning.  Here are the updated versions:

The dollar, which had poked up above the falling white channel midline in a rising wedge, broke down from the wedge this morning.  While the recent .786 tag could have been a significant bottom for DX, I continue to suspect the .886 at 81.11 is in the cards for Monday Aug 5.

Aug 5 shows up as a potentially significant date in many of my charts, including the USDJPY.  It marks the intersection of two important channels, as well as the recently broken neckline and the pale blue .886 at 100.12.

The EURUSD shows the greatest potential risk, with a recent .886 tag having occurred at the top of a falling channel and rising wedge.

Given all that, it's quite possible the 1712 target won't be reached until Monday -- if then.  There continues to be great downside risk to this rally built on QE and ramp jobs.  I would go to cash for the weekend, but would continue to play the long position unless we reach 1712 or stop out. 

I'd leave stops around 1698, but would close out the long on any significant weakness.  It has backtested the 1.272 and should be positioned for another leg up.  But, it's also running on fumes...

I have to leave you now, but will post later this afternoon or evening.


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As a young boy, I spent many hours listening to my grandparents' music collection.  One of my favorites was Guy Lombardo and his Royal Canadians.  His music still brings a nostalgic smile to my face...