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Friday, June 1, 2012

A Walk on the Arithmetic Side

~reposted from

I normally construct charts in log scale.  In general, I regard it as a more legitimate way of viewing time and price relationships.  But, I try to check in on the arithmetic picture from time to time.

Here are a few arithmetic charts to consider...

It's safe to say that the arithmetic charts agree with the log charts I've been constructing -- that the next move is higher (absent much worse news out of the euro zone, of course).  If I'm wrong, I think the downside is in the 1275 area.

I just spent an hour perusing some of my favorite sites, and almost every one of them is extremely bearish at the moment.  I don't know folks, I could be way out of line here...feeling pretty lonely in calling the bottom here again.

As I was discussing with a reader this afternoon, there have been a lot of these situations lately -- where I seem to be the odd man out.  So far, it's worked out pretty well.  But, I can't escape the feeling it'll catch up with me sooner or later.  Maybe it's all the black swans circling us, their dorsal fins a sobering reminder of the cost of being wrong.

I know I'm repeating myself, but please use stops.  Things are much too hinkey to hang your hat on my or any other forecast without downside protection.

...continued on

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