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Monday, June 18, 2012

Update on Gold: June 18, 2012

~reposted from

GC soared over $1200/oz since losing 30% in sympathy to the global markets meltdown of 2008.  Most of that rise took place in an acceleration channel.

Over the past year, however, the most prominent pattern has been the descending triangle shown in the following chart (purple, dashed.)

According to Bulkowski, these patterns can break in either direction, but break downward 64% of the time.  Whichever way they break, it typically occurs 64% of the way to the apex.  Also, if prices rise into the pattern (obviously the case, here), the breakout is upward 73% of the time.

Note how the upper bound of the triangle is echoed in parallel trend lines below it.  There's a pretty good chance that parallel TLs will come into play in any breakout, too.

The pattern looks about 19 months from July 6, 2011 to Feb 2013, so 64% would be 12.2 months;  we'll call it mid-July and drop a couple of placeholders into the chart below that fit the time frame as well as the major TLs.

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