The Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in at a horrendous 6.6 versus expectations of 18 and last month's reading of 20.21. This is a serious blow to the unicorn and rainbow crowd who've been insisting everything is just fine.
The current condition indicators are almost uniformly bleak. New orders, shipments, unfilled orders, delivery time, prices paid, and average employee workweek all worsened. The only improvements are number of employees, prices received, and inventories -- which might imply additional workers were hired in service of price strength (read: inflation) and inventory build-up.
Looking forward, respondents expect improvements only in new orders, shipments and unfilled orders. Everything else is flat or worse.
March's retail sales, in the meantime, showed improvement across the board -- though most commentators believe this continuation of good news from February is attributable toglobal warming unseasonably warm Spring weather.
The National Association of Home Builders reports that their housing market index slipped three notches. Sounds fairly innocuous, until you read some of the comments in the report:
On Friday, we watched as the H&S pattern darn near completed ahead of schedule -- coming with 8-9 points of the targeted price level. I remarked that the pattern would look a little better formed with a rise to 1400ish, and it looks like that's what the market wants to deliver. But, it's having a hard time overcoming the negative/conflicting news this morning.
The analog calls for slight gains on the day, followed by strong gains Tuesday and Wednesday before reversing. But, as we discussed last week, the right shoulder has already met our minimum requirement in terms of time and price -- so it could turn down at any time. The SMA 10 was nearly tagged Friday and is currently at 1386, while the SMA 20 is at 1395.95.
Tomorrow brings housing starts and permits, industrial production and capacity utilization. If the above interpretation is correct, look for permits and starts to be higher than the 700K estimates...and for builders to swear off watching CNBC before ever pulling permits again.
The Spain death watch continues, with CDS widening to 500+ bps and the 10-year hitting 6.17% this morning.
Stay tuned.
The current condition indicators are almost uniformly bleak. New orders, shipments, unfilled orders, delivery time, prices paid, and average employee workweek all worsened. The only improvements are number of employees, prices received, and inventories -- which might imply additional workers were hired in service of price strength (read: inflation) and inventory build-up.
Looking forward, respondents expect improvements only in new orders, shipments and unfilled orders. Everything else is flat or worse.
March's retail sales, in the meantime, showed improvement across the board -- though most commentators believe this continuation of good news from February is attributable to
The National Association of Home Builders reports that their housing market index slipped three notches. Sounds fairly innocuous, until you read some of the comments in the report:
"...interest expressed by buyers in the past few months has yet to translate into expected sales activity..."It seems that someone has realized that buyer interest, mortgage applications, signed contracts -- all of these don't much matter without closed sales at higher prices.
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On Friday, we watched as the H&S pattern darn near completed ahead of schedule -- coming with 8-9 points of the targeted price level. I remarked that the pattern would look a little better formed with a rise to 1400ish, and it looks like that's what the market wants to deliver. But, it's having a hard time overcoming the negative/conflicting news this morning.
The analog calls for slight gains on the day, followed by strong gains Tuesday and Wednesday before reversing. But, as we discussed last week, the right shoulder has already met our minimum requirement in terms of time and price -- so it could turn down at any time. The SMA 10 was nearly tagged Friday and is currently at 1386, while the SMA 20 is at 1395.95.
Tomorrow brings housing starts and permits, industrial production and capacity utilization. If the above interpretation is correct, look for permits and starts to be higher than the 700K estimates...and for builders to swear off watching CNBC before ever pulling permits again.
The Spain death watch continues, with CDS widening to 500+ bps and the 10-year hitting 6.17% this morning.
Stay tuned.
Do you think today's reversal qualifies for the top in your pink outline? a trip to 1309 is about to begin?
ReplyDeleteFrom above: "The analog calls for slight gains on the day, followed by strong gains
ReplyDeleteTuesday and Wednesday before reversing. But, as we discussed last
week, the right shoulder has already met our minimum requirement in
terms of time and price -- so it could turn down at any time. "
Today the dow went up a lot but spx closed negative, dragged down by apple. After seeing today's action, you still think more upside on Tuesday and wed. ? Thanks
ReplyDeletefwiw - my crystal ball says - watch HD. (with a lb of salt)
ReplyDelete