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Monday, April 2, 2012

Update on NDX: April 2, 2012

Big Picture:  Apr 2, 2012

Nice channel and back test on the weekly chart.  Though the channel will have to give way if the rising wedge is to stay alive.  The wedge is about 70% to its apex in both time and price.  Unless the market completely breaks down, the 1.618 at 2993 looks very doable, and could get there within the rising wedge by the end of Oct/Nov, 2012 at the 88.6% in both time and price.

Medium Close-Up:  Apr 1, 2012

Close-Up:  Apr 1, 2012

The red rising wedge has gone ballistic, but is still pretty much confined to the larger yellow rising wedge.  In the process, though, it’s soared past the 1.618 at 2686 and looks more likely to reach the 2.000 at 2839.

As overbought as it is, though, I believe we’re likely to see the smaller wedge break down and a test of the larger wedge bottom TL.  If the larger wedge holds, NDX would likely take a run at the 2993 level — the 1.618 of the larger Crab pattern and 2.24 of the smaller.

1 comment:

  1. PW, bad news means good news.  Good news means even better news.  As a result, stocks can only go up, even on April 1 Sunday. (just kidding).      Your Big Picture description should be April 2 instead of April 1.