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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Intra-day: September 21, 2011

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

We failed to stop at 1183, so the trip to 1196 is kaput.  I am watching, however, a possible turn at 1145.

Here's the scenario:



It's a potential Bat or Crab.  Each of them calls for a Point B at the .382, which is what we had.  The difference is that a Bat pattern calls for a Point D at the .886, while a Crab calls for an extension to the 1.618 of leg XA.

So, a Bat would reverse at 1145.64, while a Crab would take us to 1084.16 first.  Do I care?  Not really, because 1145 would complete the huge H&S pattern we've been watching.   We'd possibly see a little bounce there, but the H&S pattern would target 1020-1030 (obviously, the Crab also completes the H&S pattern.)



Either way, the market is going down big time.


UPDATE:  3:20 PM

My guess is the reversal at 1193.61 (sorry!) will serve as the Point B for a larger Gartley that takes us to 1196.44 for a bigger reversal at that pattern's .786.  Note we turned within .03 of the .618 retrace of the 2:20 pm high.



If we turn back up prior to 1183.33, look for the rebound and sharp reversal at 1196.


ORIGINAL POST:  3:05 PM

Little Gartley set up on SPX, should reverse at 1193.47.



Note, however, that we didn't quite reach the .618 on Point B -- meaning it could end up being a Bat pattern.  The difference is whether we turn at the .786 at 1193.47 or the .886 at 1194.76.

As always, stops are a good idea.

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