A quick look at the big picture. Check out the Big Red Line. Looks like a backtest, no?
A closer look:
UPDATE: 12:50 PM
Very interesting Butterfly completing on Nasdaq 100 (NDX.)
The 5 year daily chart shows it's backtesting a three-year trendline.
UPDATE: 12:40 PM
SPX just a couple bucks from an intra-day Gartley completing. The .786 is just over 1216.
UPDATE: 12:00 PM
ORIGINAL POST: 10:15 AM
SPX completed a Bat pattern at the .886 Fib level. It's not terribly well-formed, with point B being too high and C too low. But, the .886 Fib retrace is right on the money. It roughly corresponds to the +1 regression channel line (dates back to Aug 8) as well as Trend Line B that saved the bears' bacon back on Aug 31 and Sep 1.
This rally has gone 30 points past the highest level I thought it was capable of; so, I call this the top with a great deal of trepidation. However, similar reversal patterns are setting up across the market.
Big spy put bets that were way out of the money have dried up in terms of volume. Just FYI.
ReplyDeletePivots at 1219 and 1229 so some sort of pause is due here soon. It is also wedging.
That being said there is still room after a pause to 1260............(Fed meets next week).
AAPL only 6 bucks from a new high................Oreos for everyone.
ReplyDeleteFrom the high of 1371 to low of 1101..............
ReplyDelete50 fib ................1235
61.8 fib .............1260
I have turn dates end of next week.
I realize I'm talking to myself here but for readers.............
ReplyDelete1185-1187 should hold then up again into FED meeting perhaps.
Still has potential to 1260.
If short here I would hedge.
Look at June 27th to July 7th.
ReplyDeleteRepeat?
In 2007, which I view as analogous to this market's top, the wave 4 rebound was to the .382 level, followed by a 140 point wave 5 drop to complete Intermediate wave 1. The wave 2 retrace to the original .50 fib took two months. That remained the high for the next several years.
ReplyDeleteIn this market, our initial rebound was to the 8/31 high at the .50 fib level. I think we are still overdue for wave 5 down, which will complete Inter. 1.
In 2001, BTW, the initial retrace was also to the .50 level from the top. It was followed by a 380 point drop to complete wave 1.
There's no guarantee we'll follow the same playbook, but I wouldn't bet against it.
Re June 27 - July 7: Yes. I've been looking at this as a repeat of the Feb - July top.
ReplyDeleteRespect that and your work, just saying there is a better than average chance it is from a higher level than where we are now.
ReplyDeleteRE: june-july............notice we went flat a day or two and then another pop higher.............that is what i'm saying my happen here.
ReplyDeleteNotice how similar the tight up channel is on both
Bro, you are a genius... You got a group of avg joe 401k investors "" toasting you as we watched the 1216 (exact) close... Cheers my friend
ReplyDeleteMasked: Would that it were true. I'd be sailing off to my private island for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteBut, I very much appreciate the compliment. It's been a long week for da bears.
ckorey: not saying it couldn't happen. I just don't think it will. Guess next week will tell.
Hold had to accentuate... "The .786 is just over 1216." My TOS shows 1216.01... Is it agreed this is "just over 1216"... Come on you cant make this stuff up... Great call!!!
ReplyDeleteShort 100%
Then, you'll love the latest chart on the weekend wrapup.
ReplyDelete