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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

VIX Indicates Caution

VIX just completed a very well-formed bearish Gartley Pattern [see last post - Are We There Yet?], indicating it MIGHT have topped at 19.09.   In addition, VIX just bounced off its upper bollinger band, and there's a shooting star on the 30 minute candle. 

SPX is also a few points from completing a bullish Bat Pattern (this chart is from last week -- will update when I get the chance).

Lastly, we're clearly in a falling wedge since May 12 (easiest to see in eminis.)  The apex is tomorrow at 1313.   Importantly, 1313 is also the .786 retrace of the 1370 high -- a logical spot to arrest the decline IF that's going to happen.  It's also marks the bottom of the rising wedge since Mar '09.

At 1318.51, SPX was off 52 -- 3.8% from its high.  If we do reach 1313 on SPX tomorrow, that would be a 4.3 decline from the top, on the lower end but within the range of declines recorded by the 87-day cycle over the past 4 years.

I remain open to the possibility that 1370 was the P[2], and that the bounce up ahead (if it happens) is a corrective wave on the way down.  If so, we should see SPX contained below 1370.

All to say -- the market's ST direction is very much a toss up at this juncture.  But, for those bearishly inclined, keep one eye on the VIX.

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