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Friday, May 6, 2011

They bought it!

As I suspected, incredibly impressive employment numbers reported this morning!

We can all go back to buying stocks, knowing that the economy is back on track....except for the 22% of Americans who are unemployed or underemployed (the way the BLS reported statistics up until 1994 when we decided that those unemployed longer than a year didn't matter.)

Remember the half dozen press conferences by fed govs a few days ago, practically guaranteeing great numbers for the rest of the year?  After yesterday's initial claims selloff, we should expect these numbers to be even more carefully managed going forward.  In other words, let's not read a lot into them other than the impact they're likely to have on the blissfully ignorant.

On a positive note, going long at yesterday's lows is looking like a good move.  Again, we have three targets to complete P[2]:

(1) 1381.50 -- the .786 fib mark off the Mar '09 lows
(2) 1385 -- the top of the rising wedge, also from Mar '09
(3) 1395 -- the trendline from 1991 that we've been backtesting since Mar '09.

From the May 2 post:

Approaching these targets, I'll look to ease up on current long positions and revert to deathwatch
(P3) mode.

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