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Friday, May 18, 2012

Message in a Bottle

Back on April 12 [see: Analog Details] I wrote:
To me, a drop to 1305-1317 seems fairly plausible.  The tricky part comes in calling for a reversal after SPX has fallen 120 points from its recent high.
Truth be told, I was really writing this note to myself -- a time capsule that would hopefully provide a little backbone.  I had a feeling that, five weeks later, I'd have my doubts about the analog -- even one that has accurately forecast the exact price movements within 2 days of our original target.

Original Forecast = Solid Purple Line

Now, as we approach (patience, grasshoppers) the 120-point drop at our revised target of 1295, am I still as confident?

...continued on

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