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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Part Deux

~reposted from

UPDATE:  10:45 AM

Last night's calls on the dollar and the euro were timely.  Check out the candle on the DX daily chart -- the completion of both a Bat (purple) and Butterfly (red) pattern.

EURUSD also seems to have put in a bottom, though as mentioned earlier it's going to take ein Akt des Bundestages (literally) to save the euro now.

I think the dollar has more upside, simply because I don't believe equities have quite finished their slide.  But, watch for a back test first.


Back on April 30, I held my nose and plunged head-long into the dollar, also shorting the euro.  I'm pretty sure I invoked that age-old affirmation of confidence: "here goes nothing."  Hopefully, some of you went along for the ride.

In that night's post [see: Bet Your Bottom Dollar] I put up the following chart:


I immediately regretted sketching out the forecast in such detail; and, in fact, I caught a lot of guff from a few readers for so recklessly calling the bottom (you know who you are, wretched givers of guff!)

I didn't look at the chart for a few days, but knew things were going my way.  I just didn't realize how well things were going my way...  Here's the same exact chart two weeks later.

It deserves a close up...if only to show how spooky a forecast it turned out to be.

Throwing caution to the wind, I also posted the EURUSD chart below and wrote:
Meanwhile, the EURUSD shows signs of finally breaking down.  Both the pair and the RSI action show a rising wedge that’s bumping up against a well-established channel.
Note Point D -- the completion of a Bat pattern -- sitting down there all by its lonesome.

It now looks like this:

Yikes!  Harmonics don't always work as well as they have this past month.  But, when they do, man is it fun!


As far as the road ahead, EURUSD crossed a incredibly important fan line today.  It's either fallen off a cliff, or it's doing that roadrunner-running-in-mid-air thing.  On the other hand, it has completed a Bat pattern (as has DX) that normally means a reversal. The next 24 hours are critical.

If I had to guess, the RSI leads me to believe we're going to see a big bounce.  But, I'm taking my profits and sitting this one out.  If it plunges below the fan line, there's plenty more downside where that came from.

If it doesn't, it'll be because Merkel and Hollande are caught on video at the Sofitel Brussels, breathlessly moaning "long live the troika" while probing post-election relations.

Seriously, though, a stick save would almost certainly entail a commitment to all things Greek, Portugese, Spanish, Italian, etc. and more LTRO -- lots and lots more LTRO.

Stay tuned.


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