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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Charts I'm Watching: February 8, 2012

UPDATE:  5:10 PM

NDX came within 3 points of one target and is dangerously close to the other.  Recall we have a very complete-looking rising wedge that might have a little upside left, depending on how it's drawn (whether the Oct spikes are included or not.)  The intersecting harmonic patterns include:
  • a Butterfly that began July 27 and is still under construction, reaching 2545.84 vs its 2548.2 1.272 extension target today (the red Fib scale)
  • a 2nd Butterfly that began Oct 27 and offers a 1.618 extension at 2574.31(the purple scale)

If it's the first pattern that plays out, it could happen any day.   The other is only 29 points away -- one decent day of +1% or so -- and is a cleaner fit for the rising wedge.   It's also practically on top of 2571, the 1.272 extension of the October 07 (2239) to November 08 (1018) Butterfly.

AAPL is a big component of the NDX, of course, so we care how it's doing in its patterns.  It exceeded its Crab pattern target by 11 points today, which is enough to stop out most stocks.  I don't have any positions in Apple itself, but if I did I would tend to allow it slightly more wiggle room.



The USD changed direction as expected, right at the intersection of fan lines we discussed a few days back.  We'll continue to watch closely, as an über-bullish resolution to the Euro situation could easily blow my forecast out of the water.


And, the flip side of the call, the EURUSD respecting the diagonal we're watching...



ORIGINAL POST:  1:00 PM

Not much going on today.  All eyes on Greece, but no news of any substance other than...there's no news.  The Guardian is running a dedicated page, updated by the minute, for those who want to be notified the very instant that nothing happens.

There's been a bit of talk the past two days about an escrow account being set up to handle the upcoming Greek payment.  I just read a pretty good article here.


The gold selloff that began Friday is continuing today.  There's a test coming up at 1700, which besides being psychologically significant, represents a trend line off the August, September and November highs.  If gold bounces there, the latest decline from 1766 will look like a back test.


5 comments:

  1. so quiet these few days. Look at AAPL, the little train that can...keep chucking up...where does the track end??

    ReplyDelete
  2. Timer - could you elaborate? Would love to learn what you are looking at, gain understanding from how you arrived at that prediction. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'll take the 10th....my turn date was today: http://screencast.com/t/ZKV1RVrpKlLc

    ReplyDelete