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Thursday, February 2, 2012

Charts I'm Watching: February 2, 2012

UPDATE:  1:00 PM

Unless/until 1333 is taken out, we're calling that the Wave 2 top.  The wave action since then has been garbled, meaning it could be interpreted in a number of ways.  We'll know soon enough, though, whether the 88.6% retracement of 1333 - 1300 was a corrective wave (if 1333 was the top) or another impulse wave -- in which case it'll exceed 1333.


The run from 1300 to 1329 looks like a corrective A-B-C wave to me, but a move back above 1333 will prove that wrong.  On the other hand, a move below 1321.41 will pretty much kill the idea of a nice neat 5 wave impulse. 

Notice the RSI trend lines on the 5 min chart offer two options.  RSI can continue to bounce along on the underbelly of TL A, going higher and potentially testing 1333.  Or, it has the perfect opportunity to follow TL B down, testing 1321.41.  It's not an ironclad test, but it's a pretty good indication. 

ITM, gold has backed off its earlier highs.


ORIGINAL POST:

Gold has pushed about as far as it can go without breaking through what I believe is a back test of the last fan line.   It's also stalled at the .382 Fib line of the Crab pattern and is showing strong negative divergence on the 60-min chart.



More later.

12 comments:

  1. PW, do you have recommendation for a good book J can read about the TA terms like crab, butterflies fan line so I can learn and understand more? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I share your interest in a book/article etc to learn!

      Delete
  2. What a flatline day. Maybe tomorrow will bring some firework. We were a hair from getting over 1321.41. What a cliffhanger!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I found this online:

    http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patterns.com/index.html

    And am presently reading this:

    http://www.amazon.com/Gartley-Trading-Method-Techniques-Formation/dp/0470583541

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the link. I will look it up.

      Delete
  4. Replies
    1. I'd love to see your analysis on where those 20 spx points come from.

      Delete
  5. Pebble,

    great blog
    I think the top is in
    the 26th candle was a strong sell and the second retest here confirms that harmonic zone. (also Bill gates sold 450 million dollars worth of MSFT on or w in a day or 2 of that day lol)

    http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/2012/02/stock-top-in.html

    (Not promoting my blog... I have no blog anymore... just a convenient place to post it)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't look now, they just pulled another rabbit out of the hat....Oh no wait a sec....ITS A GOOSE!

      Everything is hunky dory in fantasy land......as you were ;)

      Delete
  6. You have to wonder if "they" really think people are going to swallow this. And I guess the answer is. They do and they are.

    It's all become a bit too much for me. How's that saying go ...."There's no such thing as free markets anymore, just interventions"

    http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/unemployment-rate-drops-to-8-3-but-median-duration-of-unemployment-increases-to-21-1-weeks/

    ReplyDelete
  7. Well said. Although this might be the blowout we needed. Working on a new assessment, will post shortly.

    ReplyDelete