I was reading an analysis of the USD ETF UUP which posits there is no evidence of professional accumulation. Considering the strong correlation between the Dollar (versus every other asset class imaginable) this suggests a collapse of asset prices and concomitant Dollar rise is not imminent. Clearly, human intervention appears to be a factor and sadly this seems to be taking the form of increased police powers by the state (see passage of the National Defense Authorization Act). A rising Dollar would, in my book, signal the loss of control of the elite money powers and beginning of a long overdue abd painful mean reversion which the one tenth of 1% would not be inoculated from. The circumvention of this process suggests that conspiracy theorists predicting the rise of fascism (worldwide) may be on to something after all.
I've never looked at the data, but do professionals play the dollar with an ETF? I would assume more participation in the futures or just through allocating to dollar denominated instruments in a global portfolio. Regarding the implications, I guess we'll see. I'm obviously bearish longer term (at least to the 700's in SPX) and the degree to which professionals participate in an ETF is unlikely to sway me. In the end, the best indicator is price.Regardless, I see DX in a falling channel long-term. The rise to 87.076 (the .886 fib) would take it back to the top of the channel sometime before March 2012. I've added the longer-term chart above.