Another Fractal: Update Dec 14, 2011

Remember the fractal I posted last week?  It's, um..., still here.   If it were to hold perfectly, it would do a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the 109-point Nov 25 - Dec 7 rise, landing at 1200 -- then rise to as high as 1255 before a violent plunge to 980.  As for the rise, OPEX Friday would be ideal, but anytime in the next few sessions would fit.

A 275 point plunge is nothing to sneeze at.  So, I'm posting this again in the hopes that having more eyeballs on it will help verify its veracity.   The above chart shows the comparable points.  The charts below provide a better idea of the scale of the moves.

If you just plain don't believe in fractals/analogs, that's okay.  But, before you blow it off, consider these posts I made in July after discovering the comparisons between the 2007 top and the 2011 top in late May.

       July 20:  http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/07/merry-christmas.html
       July 21:  http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/07/pulling-trigger.html
                      http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-far-so-far.html
       July 26:  http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/07/all-aboard.html
       July 26:  http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/07/happy-new-year.htm

I suppose you could say it worked out pretty well so far.

The one caveat:  this market hasn't gone exactly as the last.   We had some pretty significant deviations around days 125 and 144.  We could have another deviation, too.  Although the odds are fading, there's a slight chance we'll reach up and tag 1307-1313 instead of 1255 before heading down in earnest.  If we surpass 1266, this entire forecast will likely need a major revision.

There's also the possibility -- given all the problems facing markets worldwide -- that the whole thing takes a big, juicy dump right here, right now.  No black swans required.

Bottom line, keep your eyes peeled.  If this fractal holds much longer, there is significant risk ahead for anyone not paying attention -- and potential rewards for those who are.


UPDATE:  6:00 PM

Fresh from the "How 'Bout That?" department, Citi's FX Technical Group is out with some analysis naming 985 as a potential target based on a comparison with 1978.  You can read the article here.