He’s calling this a “technology VC bubble,” where new venture-capital money is paying off old money almost akin to, in his own words, “a Ponzi scheme” or “an old chain letter.”
He also opines on diversification (for idiots), his latest stock investment (SPY puts) and governmental effectiveness.
See the video here.
Think we may chop a bit higher tomorrow then roll?
ReplyDeleteStrong close.
ReplyDeleteEUR does look like topping. But we need to see it roll over before the market does.
ReplyDeleteFunny people believe three will be a solution from tomorrow's Sarkozy/Merkel meeting. Just not going to happen.
this guy should know something about bubbles and ponzi schemes, having sold broadcast.com to yahoo for billions...
ReplyDeleteany thoughts on the ifs and hows of QE3 (the real QE3, not the jawboning of last week)? I read on foxbusinessnews last week that they might actually try an Operation Twist on something as far out as the 10 year, and a rate as low as 2%.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing that might cause the inflation they always wanted, but I'm also pretty sure that would be the most effective thing the Fed could do to clear up the excess housing inventory. Moe Gamble at the DE site suggested last week that the thing to own in case of a real fix on rates out on the curve would be oil, presumably due to a collapsing dollar.
My thoughts on the markets in the next few days.
ReplyDeletehttp://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/08/16-aug-thoughts.html
Great comments, guys. EUR def due for a pullback. Completed a bearish Bat pattern Monday, and the meeting George referenced...what can they do, exactly? Growth is anemic across the board, so growing their way out unlikely. Maybe they take a page out of our book and try to QE their way out...kills the EUR, pumps the USD, US stocks sell off, right? The alternative is amputating the diseased economies by default/ restructuring.
ReplyDeleteRe QE3, I just don't know. I think the cat's pretty much out of the bag that it has no real positive effect on growth or employment. So, what's the justification? (On the other hand, does the Fed need justification?) I think: (1) it's a more polite way of defaulting on our debt, and (2) they know we're screwed, so why not go for broke? I don't know about inflation...I get the argument, but no serious signs of it yet. I think the bigger problem is no growth, and possibly deflation. Anyone notice the pricing data in the Empire survey today? I think deflation is a bigger threat. As far as fixing 10 yr rates... I don't think it can be done. Like QE3, they can try to talk it into happening, but in the end there's not enough firepower to effect low rates if the market has other plans.
ReplyDelete