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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Intra-day: August 23, 2011

UPDATE:  12:25 AM

Fan Line C to the bears' rescue!

I count that as five rallies stopped in their tracks (Aug 9, 10, 19, 22 and 23.)

Not bad, Line C, not bad at all.


UPDATE:  11:45 AM

And a counterpoint, an IH&S pattern on SPX completing at 1143.  It has potential to 1161.  If it plays out, it would certainly gussy up the Big Ugly pattern, evening up the shoulders very nicely.

If this rally extends as a result, it might end up looking something like this:

Note the 1161 target coincides pretty well with a 1.272 extension of a larger potential Butterfly pattern.

UPDATE:  11:15 AM

An update on Big Ugly -- the larger H&S pattern we've been watching.  It has bearish potential to 1032. 

UPDATE:  10:40 AM

Little Gartley setting up on the 5-minute chart.  Should reverse at the .786 retrace at 1140ish.

UPDATE:  10:00 AM

US new housing sales continue to tumble, coming in at 298,000 versus expectations of 310,000.  June was revised down from 312K to 300K, so don't be surprised if July's aren't similarly adjusted.

And, a reminder, these figures were for the calendar month, meaning the full impact of the stock market slide won't be felt until next month.

And, from the Eurozone, an update on German economic conditions/expectations from the Center for European Economic Research.  Pretty dismal readings.

The view from there is that the German economy is sliding.  Those who ranked the German economic situation as "good" fell from from 90% to 57%.  The Eurozone "good" rating fell from 13% to 6%, while "bad" leaped from 10% to 25%.

And, what do they think of the good ol' USA?  "Bad" grew from 40% to 58%, with "good" sliding to an absolutely horrid 1.1%.  According to news reports, the McGraw-Hill board is preparing pink slips for the survey participants.


Perhaps it's the S&P news, but the futures are making another bull run tonight -- currently up 11 to 1134.  A note of caution:  at 1140 there's a potential inverse head & shoulder pattern that would complete.  If it plays out,  it's got upside potential to 1180 or so.

Why do I always preface these predictions with "if it plays out?"  Because none of these indicators are foolproof.  They're all subject to being overtaken by important events, politics, fed action.   Think Fukushima, QEn, etc.

Here's a H&S pattern on the eminis that didn't play out, just this morning.


It was just as well-formed, and had nice downside potential to 1092.  This evening's runup to 1134 might negate it, since the right shoulder has been exceeded.  Or, has it?


  1. China HSBC PMI is still in contraction, but bounced off last month slightly and beats expectation.

    Seems this was the trigger for the global rally overnight.

  2. on the big ugly why dies it bit try to match the lhs

  3. The big ugly Left Hand Shoulder on your chart hit 1169, so why would not the market try to match that for the Right Hand Shoulder?

  4. It might. H&S patterns should be somewhat symmetric, with roughly even right and left shoulders. I haven't found the need for H&S symmetry to be predictive of RS completion, though. I view it more as the effectiveness of the pattern being partly a function/result of that symmetry.

  5. Remember how it happened last time....all in the last 45 mins

  6. Can you make the second chart in your latest post expandable?


    Shanghai ups gold margins second time in a week

  8. George, I'm able to expand it. What happens when you click on it?

  9. Sorry. Wan't clear. It is a second chart of the 11:45 AM post.

  10. Thanks for the link, Hook. We'll see if there's a more meaningful correction this time.

  11. George, I deleted it and reinserted it. Let me know if it works, now.

  12. Thanks pebble. That worked.

    Hum just saw some big sell volume and drop in price. Not sure if the bulls just build another base for higher high, or they call it the day and start selling.

  13. Will post more later, but we bagged both the IHS and a couple of harmonics targets. I'm happy with the idea of a reversal here. Have you seen Daneric's chart? Looks good, coincides nicely with ours and from a completely different angle -- always love that.

  14. Looking forward to it.

    The triple 1120 bottom crowd (many are smart traders, not necessary bulls) think we have 1200 at a minimum to go.