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Monday, August 15, 2011

Intra-day: August 15, 2011

UPDATE:  3:15 PM

The dollar decline seems to have run out of steam.  DX has run into support from the fan line we've been watching (red dashed line), and now has the opportunity to follow a rising TL back towards the falling wedge boundary.

UPDATE:  2:10 PM

Between the rising wedge, multiple bearish harmonics patterns, fibonacci target, horizontal resistance, an important trend line, the round number and significant divergence...

...that should just about do it for the upside.

I'm taking bets on how much longer CME will wait before raising gold margin requirements again.

UPDATE:  9:40 AM

This looks like an overshoot on the Google/Motorola euphoria this morning.  We're up past the harmonics targets and there's obvious price divergence vs RSI and MACD.

Lowes' drop in year over year sales and a continued moribund NAHB report have much more to say about the "recovery" than Google's acquisition.

I expect a reversal very soon.


An ugly Empire State Mfg Survey...  If there's a ray of hope in here, I don't see it.  Business conditions, orders, prices, inventories -- all lower.

The only index that improved was employment.  But, the increase is simply the result of employers drinking the economic recovery cool-aid.  The percentage of employers that anticipate laying off workers in the next six months is on the rise.

More later.


  1. The bots are running the show now.

  2. Seems both the Google deal, which I think is a misread as it is not a positive sign, but a defensive move, and the ECB's bond buying that pushed Euro significantly higher are putting a bottom at least for today.

    Not sure we will see reversal today. Maybe just a slight pullback.

  3. We need to see the dollar reverse first before any serious pullback can start.

    It is counter intuitive to believe tomorrow's Sarkozy and Merkel meeting will bring a new paradigm to EUR. But you can't stop people from believing that.