Now that our daily volume is up to 1,500 or so page views, it occurs to me this is getting a lot bigger than I originally expected.
If it's useful information for you, please take a minute and register as a follower. That way, I can get an idea who's checking in and when, and try to get info out on a timely basis.
While we're at it, leave a comment below and let me know what you'd like to see discussed. I'm all over the map at times, jumping from SPX technical analysis to economic discussions and back again. I try to write about things that interest me, but let me know what interests you.
Last, yesterday someone must have clicked on some ads, because Google dumped a few bucks in my account. I have no interest in taking any money from this little endeavor, but I'd love to add any revenues that are generated to the Novosel Foundation's take [see the sidebar to the right.]
The Foundation helps Guards and Reservists returning from service abroad transition back into civilian life -- primarily providing such things as wheelchairs, ramps, prosthetics, etc. So, if you see an advertiser that interests you, click away. It's for a good cause.
Hi Pebblewriter, I'm Josh (Yikes12 from Disqus). I check your site a few times a day since I picked up that the market was following your calls over at Daneric's site.
ReplyDeleteI read all sorts of stuff from all sorts of sources, and the only things I'd suggest you add to your repertoire if and when you have time is a bit of TD (Tom DeMark) analysis and some of the stuff like Andrews Pitchforks that gi61et (dead site, linked at Daneric's) was posting last summer. Not a demand or even a request. Just a suggestion of a few other things that you might find useful for your arsenal.
Thanks for the suggested donations too. My brother is an officer with the Illinois National Guard, and my brother in law is an officer with the Massachusetts National Guard. Each has spent time in the sandbox and come back intact, but wounded vets are among those in our society who I worry about most
Hey Pebble! What did I tell ya? The other day I said that the type of morons who we 'do not' want to see here would not find your blog but that the sharper guys would. Lo and behold... who shows up? None other than Yikes12... one of the best. Good to see you here Josh Yikes.
ReplyDeleteRe: your questions Pebble... I'd say that I too tend to be kind of all over the place, analyzing so darned much stuff that I almost overwhelm myself some days. I'd say that since the S&P is more or less treated as a pretty good proxy for everything that happens in the world of stockdom, or at least as a benchmark, that we probably should never leave that topic unattended.
The only other topic I personally would like to see discussed a bit more is the bond markets. This is not a request... I only say that because you asked. On the topic of bond markets though, it's almost as though when we're talking about the 6 month vs. the 10 year, we're almost talking about two different animals altogether. Perhaps we should pick one issue and focus on it? 5 yr. perhaps? Maybe the 2 year? I do believe that the shorter issues will be the more important ones to keep our eyes on going forward.
I don't really have a preference what you write about though, I've enjoyed it all, even if it's just hearing your thoughts in text form rather than chart form. It's all good. Continued success.
Hi Josh, nice to meet you. Thanks for the suggestions. I'm not familiar with TD; is there a website you could share? I've seen some pitchfork stuff, and frankly, haven't taken the time to learn it. Have you had good luck with it?
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear your bro's made it back okay. It's a tough job, more than most of those guys signed up for w/ mult tours and all. Wish they got more help from VA, etc. but I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Thanks for the ideas, AR. Gotta tell you, I am not a bond guy. And, I don't know how well the chart patterns, harmonics, etc work with bonds. I watch currencies, really because of the stock correlations. But, I'm undecided about the future of interest rates. I've read defensible theories with very disparate forecasts, so have pretty much decided not to say much about it until I have a more well-defined opinion.
ReplyDeleteBTW, everyone, when I post something, are you somehow being notified automatically? What about when others post something?
ReplyDeleteNegative on all counts. I started 'following' only yesterday though. If a follower actually signs into his Google account, then he can adjust one or two options and that's about it. But one of those options is to "Receive site newsletters and communication from Pebblewriter". Once a 'subscriber' has signed in, the option can be found under his avatar over on the right sidebar at "options/site settings/messaging".
ReplyDeletePersonally I don't want to get an email every time anybody posts a comment or a message, although I did have the box checked to allow an email. Still, I've received none.
Thanks Pebble and AR. TD is mostly made available via Bloomberg terminals, and Tom DeMark himself is an advisor to some of the biggie hedgefunds. I've been thinking of putting together a document based on internet writings to be reviewed as a teaching summary of the TD system, as I think a few folks over at Daneric's site (and maybe Kevin Depew if he understands its done for understanding) would be able to review it and update/correct it. If I can get it together I'll share it here.
ReplyDeleteThe Andrews Pitchform stuff was good for setting targets, and when limits on the pitchform arms were exceeded they were pretty good warning of defeated expectations either up or down. gi61et was a great writer last summer, but ended his blog by saying it was done as a bet of the usefulness of trading systems. It was useful, because when multiple signals failed at the end of last system, it should have served as a great warning to all to get long for a bullish move in the fall. Problem with pitchforks as far as I can tell is an amateur like me would set the base and angles wrong, and its only the proper selection of base points and angles that would make a pitchfork truly useful.
After Thursday you wrote you expected the move up to take 2 days. I think you got your second day settling on Friday, and my guess is that the bigger move down starts on Friday since nobody seems to be positioned for it.
Hey JP, anything you can share on TD and/or pitchforks, I'll gladly take a look. Always on the lookout for more/better/faster.
ReplyDeleteYes, I thought last week we'd see the market crack. I think all the suspense around the debt ceiling is acting like OPEX, making deers in headlights of all of us.
I know conventional wisdom is we'll get a relief rally if/when the deal is announced. But, maybe the market has something else in store. Maybe there are enough savvy investors who recognize that getting a new credit card that we can use to make payments on all the other maxed-out credit cards isn't necessarily a good thing. I'm kind of glad NDX made a new post-recovery high. It's a great reminder of "tis but a flesh wound" euphoria that marked the last two tops.