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Monday, July 25, 2011

S&P Lowers GDP Growth Estimate

Highlights:

2Q  lowered from 4% to 1.7%.

2011 lowered from 3.1% to 2.4%


Additional 2Q forecasts:          July      March

Unemployment                        9.1%      8.9%

Consumer spending                  .60         2.9

Equip. Investment                    4.7        17.2

Resid. Construction                  3.8         12

Fed Government                       4.5         0.9


Overseas operations account for 46% of S&P company earnings, meaning the majority still generated in the US.  If the domestic economy ratchets down, will have an impact.

S&P research shows that whenever we have two or more successive quarters of subdued growth (2% or less), either we're already in a recession or will be entering one within 12 months.

A video interview can be seen here.