At the recent high of 1341, we've completed a nearly perfectly formed Crab Pattern at a whopping 4.237 extension of the BC leg (an unusual Fib number -- inverse of the .236 level.)
The initial target of a Crab Pattern is the .618 retrace of the AD leg. Here, that translates into 1292.72. Subsequent targets include a 1.272 retracement of AD at 1242 and a 1.618 retracement at 1214. (As I mentioned in this weekend's post, I suspect the initial drop will stall by 1299 in order keep alive the hopes of a wave 5 up.)
These targets dovetails perfectly with my "same as 2007" way of thinking in the near-term, and the resolution of the head and shoulder pattern developing longer-term. Note the H&S pattern target indicates 1146, close to the 2.618 AD retracement.
Looking at the hourly chart above, I think we're about to start that next leg down. Let's call it a 3 of (1) of P[2]. We've got plenty of possible catalysts: Greece, the Portugal downgrade, coming employment data, the debt limit, etc.
I expect this move down to be fast and powerful. I added to short positions in SPX and XLF near today's high and long positions in VIX. It's still possible we go up and kiss 1345 for a proper double top, but I don't think it's necessary in order for the DT or H&S pattern to be valid.
Good luck to all.
