Channeling VIX

~reposted from pebblewriter.com

VIX has very nearly reached the channel mid-line, Inverse H&S and Crab pattern targets I posted back on April 18  [see: VIX at a Crossroads], though we're 2 days behind schedule.

Our IHS target was 28.10 and the Crab pattern target was 27.12, expected to occur on May 30.)  Friday's high was a very close 26.71.  It's close enough to be considered complete, but a little follow through Monday morning would tie things up in a nice neat bow.

Interestingly, Friday's high also nails the .382 retrace of the drop from last August's high of 48 to the recent 13.66 low.   The implications are potentially huge.

...continued on pebblewriter.com...

A Walk on the Arithmetic Side

~reposted from pebblewriter.com

I normally construct charts in log scale.  In general, I regard it as a more legitimate way of viewing time and price relationships.  But, I try to check in on the arithmetic picture from time to time.

Here are a few arithmetic charts to consider...

It's safe to say that the arithmetic charts agree with the log charts I've been constructing -- that the next move is higher (absent much worse news out of the euro zone, of course).  If I'm wrong, I think the downside is in the 1275 area.

I just spent an hour perusing some of my favorite sites, and almost every one of them is extremely bearish at the moment.  I don't know folks, I could be way out of line here...feeling pretty lonely in calling the bottom here again.

As I was discussing with a reader this afternoon, there have been a lot of these situations lately -- where I seem to be the odd man out.  So far, it's worked out pretty well.  But, I can't escape the feeling it'll catch up with me sooner or later.  Maybe it's all the black swans circling us, their dorsal fins a sobering reminder of the cost of being wrong.

I know I'm repeating myself, but please use stops.  Things are much too hinkey to hang your hat on my or any other forecast without downside protection.

...continued on pebblewriter.com...

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