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Thursday, August 23, 2012

Update on Gold

~reposted from

On Wednesday, gold reached the 1655 target from our August 15 forecast -- closing at 1656.20.  This represents a probable breach of the descending triangle upper bound as well as a tag of the Fibonacci .886 level of 1655.70 for a proper Bat Pattern completion.

I say "probable" breach, because the last time prices slightly exceeded the upper bound (in late February, by about $12/oz), the breakout stalled and prices fell rapidly.

Given that today's rise came on the heels of Fed minutes that were very suggestive of QE3, this breakout will likely go the distance.  And, the triangle is also almost 70% from inception to apex -- a little past the typical point of break out.  Since it tagged the .886, however, I'd be surprised if it didn't back test the triangle's upper bound (currently around 1640) along the way.

If it's able to maintain upward momentum, look for gold to reach the 1.618 of the current (red) pattern at 1762 to complete a Crab Pattern.  This is also the .886 of the next larger pattern (pink) -- a Bat and the .618 of the drop from the September 2011 high of 1923 and the December 2011 low of 1523.

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