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Thursday, March 8, 2012

The Contest

UPDATE:  Friday, March 16  4:10 PM

We have a WINNER!  Our very own EWTNEWBIE, at 1400, was a scant 4 points away from today's closing SPX price of 1404.24.   Who knew his keen analysis would prove to be so prophetic?

For his brilliance, the newbster (or is he?) wins a free one-year premium subscription to the new pebblewriter website, which I hope to have up this weekend (fingers firmly crossed.)

Kudos to 2nd and 3rd place finishers Roy Ponder and R M for their guesses of 1392 and 1385.  And, thanks to everyone who played our little game.   I know how humbling it can be to put your thoughts out there for everyone to see.  So, I appreciate everyone who participated.

If you all enjoyed this, we'll do it on a regular basis.  If you have a particular contest in mind, please post your thoughts below.  Again, congratulations ewtnewbie.  Great job!



I goofed when I posted that the deadline was 5pm PST.  Forgot that daylight savings time began last night.  Note that the deadline is 5:00 PM PDT (Pacific Daylight Time.)  Here's the list, in the order in which they were received,  as of moments ago.  The mean is 1332.49, median is 1330 and std dev is 42.  A slightly bearish bunch... go figure.

As someone pointed out, Friday is OPEX.  But, jeeze, what headlines over the weekend; lots to think about.

 Good luck!



Sorry, but I love this kind of stuff.  If nothing else, we'll find out who the real bears are!  From today's daily post:
I'm working this weekend to get the new website up. Take a moment to sign up as a follower of this blog; regulars will be offered preferential rates. And, while we're on that topic, I'd like to offer the reader who comes closest to picking the price at which SPX closes on March 16, 2012 a free one-year subscription. Post your best guess in the Comments Section for all to see by this Sunday at 5pm PST.
I'll post all the entries I've received as of Sunday morning shortly after noon.  Any corrections should be submitted by 5:00 PST that afternoon.   Like the markets and - dare I say, life - timing is everything.  Please, no double entries, and don't confuse me by picking a number already picked by a fellow reader.   To simplify things, all entries must be logged in the Comments Section of this post.

Good luck to all!


Here are the early birds from the comments section in yesterday's post...


  1. March' 16th huh..hmm, thats opex no less.
    Well, I'd guess 1300 'soon'..but no lower before mar'16.

    Q. whats the link for the daily post site, i did take a look, i can't find it. I wanna win the prize, so I can decline it.

    *ps. so nice to see my little page listed amongst the legends... , thanks! :)

  2. PW, a comment about your new web site.  Since your new site will have tiers for different rates, I would like to suggest a very low rate for basic information for typical readers.   I can't speak of other people, but I am sure there are people out there who simply want to see the big picture (actual picture, not the manipulated one).   Some of them probably don't need to know the number of TZA shares or puts or calls that you acquire during the day.

    No offense.  I know you are very good at technical.  However, you can't fight the Fed or a manipulated market.
    Forgive me to mention this, some of your recent bearish call since late December of 2011 turned out to be false in Jan and Feb.  Certainly, it is not your fault.   Unlike the fed or the TPTB, you, (as an individual) do not have unlimited resources.   (Even you are the best poker player in the world, you still won't win in a casino which is controlled by the dealer)

    As a result, no offense, I found out your blog is very good for information and education purpose.  Yet for investment purpose, your recent investment call is really subjected to opinion.  (IT IS BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE MANIPULATED MARKET.  NOT BECAUSE OF YOUR SKILLS)

    Again, you had great call in July.  Please don't take offense on my comment. 

    Regardless, iIf we just read the main stream media, everything is great.  The news say employment is improving.  Corporations are making big profits.   Stocks are rising.   European debt issue is being solved.   Consumers are buying again.  More importantly, housing market is strong.  What not to like?  But you are telling people differently and you are probably telling the painful truth.   You are doing a great service to many people.

    I was a typical investor until 2008-2009 where I lost a bundle.  Since then, I lost confidence in addition to capital.
    I become extremely caution and even bearish.  Ironically, the stock market is telling me that I am wrong.
    After 3 years, I still wonder what happened in 2008 and I still don't see the "strong recovery" the media is seeing.

    After all, I really appreciate your service.

    To guess SPX on March 16?  Need to toss a coin.  Pure guess only:  1280

  3. 1306.66, mind if I make little adjustment from my previous guess. Just kind of like the 666 :P

  4. More of the same melting up:  1400 on 3/16/12.

  5. No worries, Tommy; I plan on offering a low rate for folks who don't need as much or as timely information.  And, no offense re the December calls.  There were so many normally reliable technical, harmonic and chart patterns that simply busted. 

    I agree re the causes, though it doesn't make it any more enjoyable.  For that reason, I always recommend stops.  Always.  Even the best patterns/indicators can be upset by a strategic press leak or Fed statement. 

    In a gamed system, it becomes a matter of learning and playing by different rules than those we all learned over the years.  It might become increasingly difficult to find the big scores (but, then, how do we explain July?)  I believe the PPT is out there trying to prevent the general declines and wild 100-pts swings
    and flash crashes, not necessarily the 20-pts over 5 day swings. 

    And, I believe it's possible to make a decent return without the big scores -- using chart patterns, harmonics, TA and, of course, stops.  Good luck to you.

  6. It's just the Charts I'm Watching stuff I put up every day. 

  7. March 16 = 1365 (the bastards!)

  8. 1333 - I agree with Tommy regarding manipulation. I think this year might end bullish and then proper bear market 2013 to 2016.

  9. are you shorting MIB or are you waiting?

  10. When you switch over to you new site please consider leaving this blog available as an archive,

  11. market will be at 0 markets will have a bank holiday as they print a new currency and chinese gives the whole world a debt due over,,,,seriously 1350

  12. I'll take the over then.  1385. Kinda stuffy down there at 1300.  Hope I am wrong.

  13. let us try this nice round number of 1324.91 by 3/16


  14.  I believe Permabear Doomster beat you to it (see below).  Care to submit another number? 

  15. I'm going to wait until after 5pm.  Don't want to jinx anyone.

  16. And, that's the cut-off.   We'll see how the week goes.   Good luck, everyone!

  17. Ouch I missed the cut off - well for fun 1275.25 :p