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Thursday, August 25, 2011

Oh, Me of Little Faith

I'll admit, after watching more than a few patterns fail over the past day or two, I was feeling a little snakebit. 

On Tuesday, we completed a nice little bearish butterfly pattern at the 1.272 extension.



But, the next morning, we were up 20-points in spite of horrid economic news -- nailing, instead, the 1.618 extension.  Thankfully, a quick reversal followed, confirming the butterfly.  Miller time, right?



Of course, the reversal was a headfake.  I watched dejectedly as SPX soared and my ego slumped.  Fifteen points later, I was on my third Excedrin of the day, wondering where my wife hid the Oreos.

My only hope was a little H&S pattern that looked suspiciously like the one a few days before, and a shabby little rising wedge.



I snapped a picture, but didn't have the heart to show it to you, my faithful partners on this bear hunt.  My fears were realized when the market rode BofA to the moon this morning.   I was clearly no match for Warren.

My only hope was to criticize the deal, get a few million people to read the critique, sell their BofA (and everything else, while they were at it) and bring stocks back to the neckline of my pathetic little H&S pattern.  Not too much to ask, right?

Apparently not.


 The completion of the pattern should send SPX down to 1120.  But, the really cool part is that it completes a bigger, not-so-pathetic H&S pattern that could send SPX to 1040.


Recall that 1040 is one of those key targets we've been talking about, as it corresponds with the last major low of last summer's swoon.  That particular low is, itself, the origin of gobs and gobs of important fan lines, so I think it's pretty über-important, itself.


Will it all unfold as planned?  We'll see what GDP and BB have to say about it tomorrow.  Irene might even slip in a word or two.

As for me, I'll be glued to my monitor -- Excedrin and Oreos nearby.   Okay, maybe some champagne on ice...just in case.


Intra-day: August 25, 2011

UPDATE:  9:00 PM




UPDATE:  2:25 PM

Another way of viewing today's H&S pattern...  If it completes at 1156, this one potentially takes us all the way to 1121, also completing the larger pattern with the 1032 target.



UPDATE:  2:00 PM

This morning's spike has been successfully beaten back.  The reversal leaves a head & shoulders pattern on the 15-minute chart. 


Potential is to 1130, just 9 points away from completion of the larger H&S pattern with potential to 1032.



For all the excitement around the Buffet/BAC deal, the after-effect is a perfectly-formed bearish Crab pattern that should quickly erase this morning's bump and then some.



UPDATE:  9:25 AM

BUFFET'S BILLIONS BAIL OUT BOFA

BofA has 10.09 billion shares outstanding, with a market cap of $63.85 billion.  For his $5 billion, Buffet gets cumulative preferred stock with a 6% dividend and redeemable with a 5% premium.

The real plum?  He also gets warrants on 700 million shares at an exercise price of $7.142857 each, good for 10 years.  He paid zilch for the warrants, so at the indicated opening price of 8.83 (vs yesterday's close of 6.99) BH has already recouped $1.2 billion of his $5 billion (on paper, anyway.)

Looking at it another way, if BAC recovers to 14.28 or more, he's essentially got his preferreds for free. He can reap the $300 million in annual dividends on essentially a zero investment going forward. Pretty healthy IRR, wouldn't you say?

Why would BAC offer Warren & Co such a sweet deal?  It had no choice.  Warren, who from all accounts is a sweetheart of a guy, knows a desperate borrower when he sees one.  And, this settles that pesky question as to how desperate BAC really is.



Terrible news for the shorts --  131 million shares worth.


INITIAL POST:  9:20 AM

Initial claims of 417K versus expectations of 400K.  The futures promptly dropped 5 points, but are now spiking on news of Berkshire Hathaway's $5 billion capital infusion into BofA.