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Friday, September 2, 2011

Intra-day: September 2, 2011

UPDATE:  3:30 PM

The dollar's had a good run today, but might soon be running into some technical headwinds.  In a harmonic pattern that'll probably end up being a Crab, it's currently at its 1.272 XA and 2.618 BC extension.



A properly formed Crab should see it reach its 1.618 XA extension at 75.153, but to get there it'll have to break out of the falling wedge it's been in for over a year. 






UPDATE:  2:20 PM

Just got back from my local BofA.  Several video screens in the lobby looped an in-house documentary about the thousands of BofA employees who volunteer in their local communities, making this a better world.  Strange, no mention of the several hundred foreclosures being processed daily... or, the $8.5 billion being offered to settle foreclosure fraud charges.

All the Suits were gathered around the branch manager's computer, probably wondering whether they should spruce up their resumes after reading senior management's latest missive:



As we discussed at the time, the Buffet deal was a great deal for Buffet... but, not so much for BAC shareholders.  Apparently, some of the employees see it that way, too.

When questioned about the deal, CFO Thompson could have said that Buffet's investment was a "powerful endorsement of the value of the company" or "an opportunity to partner with one of the greatest investors of all time."

No doubt thinking about his own rapidly evaporating stock options, he replied instead that Buffet's investment was a "strong validation of management."

He went on to say that BofA told the old coot to take a hike the first time he tried to give them money.  He just kept coming back, apparently annoying them to the point where they took his $5 billion just to get him to go home.

If you're reading this, Warren, my door is always open. 


UPDATE:  1:30 PM

Just completed a bearish Gartley pattern on gold (GC).  Indicates an initial downside target of 1770.


But, the cult of Gold followers seems to be shaken only by margin increases, so we'll see if this plays out or not.  Re margin, there should be another increase any day now given the volatility lately.


UPDATE:  10:15 AM

The bearish Gartley pattern has played out perfectly, reversing just past the .786 Fibonacci level.   And, Fan Line B has continued to hold.  As mentioned many times before, the intersections of multiple fan lines (from above and below) often serve as important turning points.





A look at the big picture.




ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM

Can't have a recovery without an improvement in unemployment...  I'm looking for any glimmer of hope in this morning's NFP report, and have yet to find it.

From Briefing.com:








And, the BLS:






Thursday, September 1, 2011

Intra-day: September 1, 2011

UPDATE:  1:00 PM

XEU v SPX:  syncing up nicely the past couple of weeks, as they're both an anti-dollar play.  Ordinarily more of an inverse relationship.



PM's playing the same role,  with GLD and SPX moving together as an anti-dollar play.



USD v SPX:  inverse relationship a bit stretched right now....



Has that "something's gotta give" look about it, as the dollar rally hasn't been fully reflected in SPX.




UPDATE:  10:50 AM

The dollar responded well to today's economic news.  DX has been in a falling wedge within a larger falling wedge, and broke out last week.  We had a nasty backtest last Friday the 26th that has since reversed.  DX is once again threatening the longer term trend line that's limited its upside since Jun 10.

5 YEAR - DAILY


1 YEAR - DAILY


BREAKOUT ON 60-MIN

One way or the other, DX will be forced out of its falling wedge by the end of September.


UPDATE:  10:10 AM

ISM data out, and not as bad as many expected thanks primarily to a troublesome growth in inventories. Increasing inventories are a sign of confidence, as business owners are increasing their stocks of products in anticipation of greater sales.  In an expansion, increasing inventories are a bet that's likely to pay off.  In a contracting/slowing economy, they signal that someone made a bad bet.

The trend across the board is not pretty.  From briefing.com:


A reminder, this is a survey of purchasing managers' attitudes about business conditions.  An index above 50 indicates conditions are better, and below 50 indicates they are worse.  Because it's not generated by a department of people who can be fired by Congress or the White House, it is not considered to be "managed" as are many DOL and DOC reports.


Exports continue to cling to a positive score, benefitting from a cheap dollar -- a factor that might not last much longer.


ORIGINAL POST:  9:20 AM

From Briefing.com, a nice view of labor productivity and costs.  Not a healthy path, to say the least.