tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post778694590232538781..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: Too Far, Too Fast: Oct 24, 2011pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-17281536720726643822011-10-25T09:32:05.463-04:002011-10-25T09:32:05.463-04:001040 is a great alternate target. I'm just ba...1040 is a great alternate target. I'm just basing it on how the 2007/8 top stuck to the larger (yellow) channel for a while before finally falling out. That channel, which is actually a regression channel for the period Apr 07 to Sep 08, captures the moves of the last top exceptionally well. So, I'm inclined to give it the benefit of the doubt in this replay. If the slope goes south a la August, I'll be leading the cheers.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-79124133402514204342011-10-25T08:06:56.378-04:002011-10-25T08:06:56.378-04:00Why not 1040 on the first downturn?
And ... what ...Why not 1040 on the first downturn?<br /><br />And ... what if it has a slope similar to August (which I count as a W1, over at TickerForum).christiangustafsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07216348353801614419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-16086868181487422602011-10-24T20:01:48.682-04:002011-10-24T20:01:48.682-04:00Pebble,
You are right. I have read in multipl...Pebble,<br /><br /> You are right. I have read in multiple websites comparing the same chart of 2008 and now. I guess it is an open secret now. What differs is what happens after the first "downturn", some predict a lower low than1075, then go on to rally to new high. Some say we will not see new low for the year. Who to believe??? I do think your analysis is very sound. The steeper the climb the steeper the decline. Imagine the pink line scenario plays out, it will certainly scares the living daylight out of many longs. Kind of wish to see that hehe But then unless some catastrophe strikes, I do believe the yellow line scenario seems more probable. But then the market likes to surprise us with the least expected scenario. We will see...curiousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.com