tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post6894098368258896186..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: Getting Fleeced: January 7, 2012pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-51931897611818503402012-01-09T16:59:34.492-05:002012-01-09T16:59:34.492-05:00Yes, I think so too. Although, if you get far eno...Yes, I think so too. Although, if you get far enough into the future, forecasting is subject to rapidly diminishing returns. How long will TPTB be able to keep the game going, and how will the dollar fare compared to other currencies and commodities? It's all very chummy now, as we need the EZ to hold together (the better to protect ourselves.) But, at what point does the US take a much more protectionist stand?pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-3459910958252826812012-01-09T00:48:41.212-05:002012-01-09T00:48:41.212-05:00Curious, Robert Prechter has always maintained tha...Curious, Robert Prechter has always maintained that in a deflationary environment it's "all the same market". In other words, all asset classes will decline together. Back in 2008-09 we did indeed see gold, silver, oil, grains, meats, and foreign currencies decline along with stocks.<br /><br />The logical conclusion is that gold will decline with everything else. Or is it?Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10236709465932299548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-73453958765017180122012-01-08T17:53:42.253-05:002012-01-08T17:53:42.253-05:00I am not a goldbug, and I am not a chartist for su...I am not a goldbug, and I am not a chartist for sure. However, gold is an interesting asset and seems to act to surprise people some times. For example, when the market for in meltdown mode back in August, Gold was not affected by the "de-leveraging", it turned into safe haven and climbed almost $300. Back in 2008, it dropped from 1250 to 600+ because of the liquidity freeze, but after 3 years, it made new high at 1900+. <br /><br />The world is addicted to credit, it's like drugs, the deleveraging that was supposed to started 2 years ago with the financial market breakdown didn't really happen. In fact the financial world is more leveraged now than 2 years back. It will be helpful to everyone if we can discuss this topic in this blog.<br /> With the next meltdown in the stock market, will gold be safe haven or will crash to $1000 or less.? That is the question.curiousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-31322291362253499382012-01-08T12:59:48.338-05:002012-01-08T12:59:48.338-05:00BTW, it goes without saying that all the patterns ...BTW, it goes without saying that all the patterns and channels, etc. can be easily derailed by something like a shooting war in the Gulf. Such is the nature of Black Swans.<br /><br />Otherwise, the long, painful process of de-leveraging will continue until the value/debt imbalance is rectified. <br /><br />One of the more interesting numbers in that series is the yield on the 10-yr during the depression. <br /><br />1929 - 3.60<br />1930 - 3.29<br />1931 - 3.34<br />1932 - 3.68<br />1933 - 3.31<br />1934 - 3.12<br />1935 - 2.79<br />1936 - 2.65<br />1937 - 2.68<br />1938 - 2.56<br />1939 - 2.36<br />1940 - 2.21<br />1941 - 1.95<br /><br />In 1941, when the 10-yr finally registered less than 2%, the 1-yr bottomed at .53% (the lowest in Shiller's 1871-2011 series till 2010.) PE's averaged 16.8 with a low of 13 during the 30's. <br /><br />We've already dipped below those rates rates, but have averaged a PE of 25.6 since 2000.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-35327103190086851422012-01-08T10:00:00.296-05:002012-01-08T10:00:00.296-05:00At least that's what the charts are saying. B...At least that's what the charts are saying. But, it makes sense. With all the liquidity being pumped into the system to keep the game afloat, there will be a tipping point. Just not yet. I think one of the most valuable hours of research one can spend is with Shiller's data set on performance for different asset classes during various recessions and depressions: http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/index.htmpebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-25835406501419273652012-01-08T05:51:56.873-05:002012-01-08T05:51:56.873-05:00Thanks Pebble, you have all but confirmed what I s...Thanks Pebble, you have all but confirmed what I suspected.. A deflationary liquidation coupled with a flight to USD'sbeetlejuicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317530269578300545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-66429411129358234082012-01-08T01:09:39.771-05:002012-01-08T01:09:39.771-05:00What a refreshing commentary. Agree with PW and al...What a refreshing commentary. Agree with PW and also Tom that the decline does not look at all complete - both in price and time from a wave perspective. I am a long term stacker, so I did buy a little physical gold and silver before Christmas, and will add on future dips.Niftyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05902752524322968834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-26666907107562763162012-01-07T17:41:57.595-05:002012-01-07T17:41:57.595-05:00Glad to oblige. I haven't been doing much in ...Glad to oblige. I haven't been doing much in gold lately, as stocks have required extra time and effort. Sometimes, a fresh look helps. But, I'm not as acquainted with recent day-to-day as a regular gold trader would be. So, take it with that grain of salt, okay Tom? And, I agree with you on the stocks. If we get the kind of melt down I'm expecting, everything will be affected across the board. Best of luck.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-17534765354966138202012-01-07T14:45:14.860-05:002012-01-07T14:45:14.860-05:00Very glad to read this analysis. Thanks Pebble. ...Very glad to read this analysis. Thanks Pebble. I re-established my shorts on gold yesterday at 1630 after taking previous short profits at 1530, because I believe the downside is by no means over.<br /><br />And if Gold is a leading indicator (as it often can be) then we are due a waterfall decline in stocks any day now.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10236709465932299548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-15331846793994222452012-01-07T09:15:12.062-05:002012-01-07T09:15:12.062-05:00Thanks for the update on gold. It is much apprecia...Thanks for the update on gold. It is much appreciated.curiousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.com