tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post6134762221242981788..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: A Tipping Point: March 23, 2012pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-29096820190014388842012-03-25T11:33:50.798-04:002012-03-25T11:33:50.798-04:00Great questions and comments here, everyone. I...Great questions and comments here, everyone. I'm going to sign off and continue working on the website. I promised myself I'd get it up and running this weekend, and really want to make it happen -- even if it means delaying that article I'm working on. Cheers~pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-55378899819958054532012-03-25T11:31:37.979-04:002012-03-25T11:31:37.979-04:00Nice charts. From a charting standpoint, 1987 was...Nice charts. From a charting standpoint, 1987 was not that complicated. SPX broke UPWARDS from a 5 yr old rising wedge, got way ahead of itself from a valuation/harmonic/technical standpoint. It tagged the long term RSI trend line and reacted, breaking several price trend lines along the way. The killers were the RSI TL break (yellow, dashed) on Aug 26 and subsequent rising wedge break on Sep 1. Interesting that the fall was right to an RSI TL (solid yellow) on Oct 19.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-36649411141502315512012-03-25T10:56:04.631-04:002012-03-25T10:56:04.631-04:00Sadly, the book remains unopened on desk, as I'...Sadly, the book remains unopened on desk, as I'm working overtime to get the new website up and running. I haven't charted bonds lately, but will take a fresh look now that things are heating up a bit. Re Daneric's theory, I think it has merit. <br /><br />I think deflation and inflation, lower rates and higher rates are all on the table. But, you have to look at why things are happening; e.g. an oil shock would obviously spike inflation, which would damage markets and worsen the economy = stagflation/recession a la 1973. <br /><br />High interest rates lagged inflation, as you can see from the attached table from Shiller's data, but lasted on into the mid-1980s. This made it particularly difficult to recover, because the things you normally do to stimulate the economy would make already bad inflation worse. <br /><br />If a credit-driven spike in interest rates were to lead the way, we'd no doubt see a hit to the (leveraged) economy and good, old-fashioned recession/deflation.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-85723682260458381192012-03-24T12:51:22.351-04:002012-03-24T12:51:22.351-04:00 Again, thanks for the great articles, charts, and... Again, thanks for the great articles, charts, and insight......How is the "Forth Turning" coming?.........spooky to see riots and revolutions around the globe now after reading that book several years ago......I remember you touching on rates/bonds months ago and of course through the recent cartoon, but I have not noticed anything since.......Do you have an opinion on bonds and rates in the s&l term?..... How do you fall in relation to Daneric and his rising yield deflation?...... I follow them, tbt/tlt specifically, and long bonds have not done anything since their 34 year Gann birth date in Chicago back in August.<br /><br />Have a great weekendpebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-34498004577517968812012-03-23T18:43:44.189-04:002012-03-23T18:43:44.189-04:00Hi PW,
I've been doing a little doodling myse...Hi PW,<br /><br />I've been doing a little doodling myself today. I've come across a bunch (tons) of charts which all exhibit the same behavior. Take a four year daily chart, log scale. Draw fib fan lines from March 09 low to May 10 (ish) high. That will create the top of the wedge. For the bottom, draw a trend line up from August 11 low. Perhaps this is just highlighting what you mention above but I thought it interesting how the fib lines drew half the wedge.<br /><br />Kind of weird. I've always thought there was more to that flash crash in May 2010 then a fat finger etc. Also kind of weird considering recent market shennanigan's...pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-89314050486948805052012-03-23T16:08:22.322-04:002012-03-23T16:08:22.322-04:00 Thanks, Dave. Tune in this weekend for what I th... Thanks, Dave. Tune in this weekend for what I think will be an interesting follow-up.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-39634264217154081182012-03-23T16:07:47.452-04:002012-03-23T16:07:47.452-04:00There is definitely a potential path higher for bo...There is definitely a potential path higher for both, esp 1420 or 1433 on SPX. But, odd that SPX closed (barely) below the SMA 10 and saw a bearish cross on MACD. Still plenty of negative divergence, harmonic pattern overhead and that pesky rising wedge. pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-89809913871458613912012-03-23T14:53:37.566-04:002012-03-23T14:53:37.566-04:00Thanks for the props, Tommy. Excellent point abou...Thanks for the props, Tommy. Excellent point about Bernanke as The Hero on the cover of The Atlantic. If I didn't know any better, I'd say that's a social mood indicator of some sort.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-85610861948915166452012-03-23T14:48:09.040-04:002012-03-23T14:48:09.040-04:00Great post, PWGreat post, PWpebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-26818910578034798112012-03-23T12:33:07.883-04:002012-03-23T12:33:07.883-04:00Thanks PW! Thanks PW! pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-51751513667352006582012-03-23T11:17:48.262-04:002012-03-23T11:17:48.262-04:00Hey Pebble
yeah, we are certainly looking toppy,...Hey Pebble <br /><br />yeah, we are certainly looking toppy, I still find it bizarre we got above 1400, urghh.<br /><br />Problem I have near term is that the monthly cycle is still very bullish. The weekly IS WEAK, but that can easily flip back up next week.<br /><br />If I had to guess right now, I still think we get a kick higher to sp'1440 /IWM 86 level. That'd make a nicer high during early April, then trundle side ways for a few weeks, before a targetted move to ...none other than 1150 zone.<br /><br />Have a nice weekend.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.com