tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post5033011939327617589..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: The Calm Before the Storm: January 3, 2012pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-66625673607566716932012-01-05T13:58:30.917-05:002012-01-05T13:58:30.917-05:00"chock full of dad duties"
I loved thos..."chock full of dad duties"<br /><br />I loved those days and miss them very, very badly. My kids are all grown up, both very successful with awesome careeds, but too busy to see dad much. The old Cat's in the Cradle syndrome on steroids.<br /><br />"I'm considering putting together a section on the site that would explain and illustrate fractals, harmonics, etc if that would be of interest to folks. Let me know."<br /><br />I know I'm one person who would certainly benefit from that Pebble. I don't actually even know what a crab or a butterfly is. All I know about that is that I like to eat crabmeat and I stopped eating butterflies about 4 years ago.<br /><br />"I've been early on many of my calls, and I'd like to improve on that."<br /><br />That is absolutely my problem as well. In order to try to alleviate that, to try to remove the noise and remove the effects of overnight gaps one way or the other, I've gone back to the very basic of all basics... moving averages. I've been working on ways to use the signals from those with as much efficiency as I can. I still haven't perfected it (and probably never will "perfect" it) but man does it ever help.<br /><br />Keep up the great work partner. There are many who appreciate it. I are one.Albertarockshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01012817858746684681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-71607624719123657362012-01-04T13:18:50.461-05:002012-01-04T13:18:50.461-05:00Sorry to be just now getting to these comments... ...Sorry to be just now getting to these comments... last night was chock full of dad duties and I wanted to review the big picture before answering.<br /><br />Farhad: I'm considering putting together a section on the site that would explain and illustrate fractals, harmonics, etc if that would be of interest to folks. Let me know.<br /><br />Distopian: yes, it gets a little lonely at times focusing on turning points rather than the slow steady (but, always upward!) grind that most of Wall Street services. All I can do is keep refining my techniques in the hopes of minimizing the false alarms and near misses. I've been early on many of my calls, and I'd like to improve on that.<br /><br />ckorey: got stopped out of some, holding the rest just in case. If we dip to 1264 in the next day or so, I'll probably take some profits and consider some short term call positions if it appears that we're reversing back up to 1307ish. But, that's subject to change of course.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-73473368190137383052012-01-03T16:23:47.160-05:002012-01-03T16:23:47.160-05:00Still holding Jan puts?Still holding Jan puts?ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-70376275716450978192012-01-03T16:13:50.427-05:002012-01-03T16:13:50.427-05:00As always I admire your work, PW. I imagine you ma...As always I admire your work, PW. I imagine you may be starting to feel a bit like Captain Ahab, only hunting for Black Swans instead of whales. Regardless, we know they are out there just waiting to capsize this ship of a market.distopiandreamboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06437316957137294682noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-70985680676216729282012-01-03T15:34:34.782-05:002012-01-03T15:34:34.782-05:00Pebble: happy new year, and thanks for your sharin...Pebble: happy new year, and thanks for your sharing. I'm new to the blog, while ignorant of frcatal techniques, very fscinated by your work. I want to learn and understand the technigue. Coul you direct me to a site, a book/article, any thing that would get me started. Thanks!Farhadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17622964701006963940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-10411235753333830572012-01-03T15:25:20.230-05:002012-01-03T15:25:20.230-05:00That prediction is for the end of the week. It...That prediction is for the end of the week. It's God's way of punishing my shorts.letsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-80403784236334731422012-01-03T15:19:29.645-05:002012-01-03T15:19:29.645-05:00I'm pretty sure if the DJIA reaches 34,000 in ...I'm pretty sure if the DJIA reaches 34,000 in the next 10 years, it'll be because the dollar is worth less than the ink it takes to print it.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-26456991941398987942012-01-03T14:28:17.451-05:002012-01-03T14:28:17.451-05:00Well, from my calculations, I see DOW 34,000. I w...Well, from my calculations, I see DOW 34,000. I will be sustaining myself on dirt sandwiches and sewer water dribbling from Bennie B's tail pipe.letsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-33656221297685557612012-01-03T14:09:58.330-05:002012-01-03T14:09:58.330-05:00Probably just a little early, as regular readers h...Probably just a little early, as regular readers have come to expect. But, with Minor 3 in the works, I'd rather be early than late -- wouldn't you?<br /><br />BTW, I do update my forecasts when/if able as circumstances dictate. That's why I posted yesterday about the Gartley in the Euro. Even though it featured a Point B in excess of the .618, it broke the rules and extended to a Bat, reversing at the .886 instead of the .786.<br /><br />The extra .003 was enough to extend the SPX Butterfly to its 1.618 instead of 1.272 extension -- a situation I posted about 15 minutes before this morning's opening.<br /><br />There are no guarantees in this business. And, I've yet to find a system that is perfect. But, mine is pretty darn good. I leave all past posts up for anyone to read -- including the ones in which I'm wrong. <br /><br />I've been saying we could go as high as 1307-1313 since October 25 (see link below). In that post, I forecast a reversal at 1257, bottoming at 1170 and returning to 1280 or 1307. Instead, we reversed at 1292, bottomed at 1158 and returned to 1284 (so far.)<br /><br />I still don't consider 1307 as likely. I believe that 1292 will hold as the Minor 2 high and that we'll be much, much lower by the end of January. The next few days should be telling.<br /><br />http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/10/charts-im-watching-october-25-2011.htmlpebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-33143205504274554502012-01-03T09:36:45.511-05:002012-01-03T09:36:45.511-05:00S&P = 1280
PW = wrongS&P = 1280<br />PW = wrongletsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-61938712714466844692012-01-03T01:40:33.557-05:002012-01-03T01:40:33.557-05:00Re-posted from the previous post...
Albertarocks ...Re-posted from the previous post...<br /><br />Albertarocks said...<br /><br /> Thanks for sharing your insights Pebble. I love the way you think man, lol.<br /><br /> Your second chart from the top, the daily chart of the S&P looks eerily like this chart of the DAX. It's the chart from an article I had posted. And sure as hell, no sooner had I made a case for the bearish breakdown, the damned DAX scoots higher by 3 full percent on a day when the US markets are closed. I'll bet volume on the German exchange was damned near zero today.<br /><br /> In any case, I'd say that at least for the DAX, it's back to the drawing board because that sucker now looks like it wants to explode higher. Frustrating business this is. I'm sticking to my guns though. Every damned analysis I've done lately is pointing to the same outcome... a mighty deflationary collapse is more likely to happen than not. Of course none of my analyses are confirmed yet, but they're sure pointing in that direction.<br /><br /> In case you might be interested, I published a new article on the DAX this morning showing how it would appear if it were priced in terms of the DJ Europe Financial Index. Very revealing insofar as that it shows that either the European banks had better start recovering or the DAX is likely to just hit the skids. We just can't have a soaring equity market while banks are collapsing in price. It just doesn't compute.<br /><br /> And then at midnight eastern, I'll be publishing another one. I'm leaving it until then so that GEI can publish it at the same time. I owe that to them. It's a revisit to the CRX story which for one reason or other was a huge hit on that website. I'm not sure why, but the people who frequent that site hit my articles over there like there's no tomorrow. But so far, they've never been told that I've started up my little blog because the last time anything of mine was published on GEI, my blog hadn't even been conceived of yet. So that'll be interesting... to see if any of those people wander over to my blog for a look.<br /><br /> You're still one of my favorite people out there Pebble. Love your stuff and your way of writing. Thanks for all you offer to us.<br /><br /> Hoping 2012 is the best year of all time for you. Continued success :-)<br /> January 2, 2012 6:50 PM <br /><br /><br /><br />pebblewriter said...<br /><br /> Thanks for the input and the well wishes, AR. Same to you and yours.<br /><br /> As usual, your logic is impeccable -- stocks can't soar with banks failing left and right. I see a decent argument for a gap up to 1267 or so in the morning, based on a potential Bat pattern on SPX and Gartley on EURUSD (reversing @ 1.303.) From there, gap and crap?<br /><br /> TOS doesn't quote/chart DAX, so it's a little hard for me to tell with any precision, but it appears that there have been several instances where DAX lagged SPX on the downside. Two apparent cases are late July and late September sharp SPX reversals that ushered in the 3rd and 5th waves down respectively.<br /><br /> Seems like the percentage move in SPX has been about 1.25X the EUR lately, so I'm going to look for a move to 1.303/1267 move in the morning before the party gets going for the shorts (not to be confused with a party in one's shorts.)<br /><br /> Please drop in frequently, and let me know when there's something especially important to read over at ARTAD. I sometimes don't catch up on my reading till the EOD and would hate to miss something time sensitive. I'll try to do the same.<br /><br /> Cheerspebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.com