tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post3748427686375481550..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: Charts I'm Watching: October 25, 2011pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-88560378162903470792011-10-26T12:35:21.609-04:002011-10-26T12:35:21.609-04:00Well said. As much as the Fed would like to boost...Well said. As much as the Fed would like to boost inflation and encourage investment (the rock) they're stuck with the (hard place) prospect of inflation grabbing consumers by the neck and killing off any hopes of a recovery. It's happening EVERYWHERE. In the end, politicians will have to decide between losing their next election (or their lives, depending on the country) or suggesting to their bankster friends that they start taking some losses for the idiotic loans they've made. That's it, really: write-downs or riots.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-16861514974986422902011-10-26T10:48:19.172-04:002011-10-26T10:48:19.172-04:00Blake, you might want to check out the comments by...Blake, you might want to check out the comments by Pebble and myself regarding the dollar that appeared on the page in the link below. Today, three days later, I think the path for the dollar is developing as Pebble and I figured it would. A bottom might be in. I think it is:<br />http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/10/dollar-days-october-23-2011.html <br /><br />dillzs99, I too am in the deflationary camp, not only because of the arguments offered by Mish, but because of my own findings. In the event you're interested, I've published a few articles that go into various ways of measuring the inflation/deflation metric. The first one is a bit dated and I definitely need to write a follow-up. When I finally get around to doing that, it will appear on Global Economic Intersection, where the first article can also be found in the link below. In the event that you are taken to a page that says "forbidden", just hit the link on that page that says "bypass this message" (or something like that):<br />http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog3.php/2011/05/12/title-8#more1174<br /><br />A more recent article I presented looked at the message we're getting when we price the S&P in pounds of copper:<br />http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog3.php/2011/09/30/copper-a-possible-call-for-deflation<br /><br />I've done others as well, including the S&P as priced in oil. Every study I've done is pointing to the same likely conclusion... that we're likely going to be experiencing a deflationary period. It could be MASSIVELY deflationary. I don't have a time frame for it necessarily, but if the deflationary scenario does indeed unfold, then I believe it will last longer than most are expecting. At some point though, hyperinflation will definitely arrive. Again... I think that's further away than most people are expecting.Albertarockshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01012817858746684681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-19915873619229175512011-10-26T10:21:35.214-04:002011-10-26T10:21:35.214-04:00I understand the argument, I more or less agree an...I understand the argument, I more or less agree and have been long the dollar since about 73.5. Quite pissed that I let a great portion of my profits disappear in this down turn however. My problem with the deflation arument is the current level of involvement of central banks. Although their meddling in the markets will eventually lead to a eflationary event, does that deleveraging necessarily drive up the value of one currency relative to another, ie- the dollar? It comes down to what is considered money, or what the people in charge decide is money. Of course, this is dependent on the masses trusting the people in charge...Maybe getting a bit off base here and I do not intend to sound apocalyptic. What if hard assets are considered the store of value and the deflationary event is the cost of good decreasing relative to productivity? In this case, could we not see something like the dollar index stay flat relative to other currencies, but greatly depreciate relative to gold, silver, and oil? The point is that goods can drop in value relative to productivity, but actually go up in value relative to a currency. Does this make sense? These are questions that I really don't have any real answers to, just trying to think outside the box a bit.Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-24481114126172345052011-10-26T10:08:23.537-04:002011-10-26T10:08:23.537-04:00I'm with pebble and fully in the deflationary ...I'm with pebble and fully in the deflationary camp. <br /><br />Over on his blog "Mish" (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com)<br />has done some excellent work on debunking the hyperinflation argument. I think his best point was "hyperinflation accompanied with a housing collapse is simply impossible - by definition".<br /><br />Read through some of his posts and you will find solid arguments as to why deflation is the concern (for now).dillzs99https://www.blogger.com/profile/08134062644817552023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-23897277993869600572011-10-26T09:55:27.344-04:002011-10-26T09:55:27.344-04:00In the near-term, it's all about the EUR. EUR ...In the near-term, it's all about the EUR. EUR spiked up this morning on the German ESFS vote, which essentially said they'd probably rubber stamp whatever Merkel brought them. But, of course, if she brings them a stinking pile of goose poop...<br /><br />Re hyperinflation... I'm personally in the deflationary camp, myself, principally because of all the de-levering that has to happen. Although I can see inflation as a much longer-term result depending on how governments and CBs handle the coming worsening of the downturn.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-91192031436721752402011-10-26T09:27:55.111-04:002011-10-26T09:27:55.111-04:00another new low for the dollar. At what point to ...another new low for the dollar. At what point to we consider that there may not be a bounce coming and that we are entering a hyperinflationary scenario?Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-7769083331759693712011-10-25T17:14:32.731-04:002011-10-25T17:14:32.731-04:00Not getting anything on that link...Not getting anything on that link...pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-7601936023938959342011-10-25T16:49:22.740-04:002011-10-25T16:49:22.740-04:00Wrong link............try this..........
http://...Wrong link............try this..........<br /><br /><br />http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0516dc6d-44dd-4f27-a271-85569ce0c4f2ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-63136927691828002202011-10-25T16:44:45.449-04:002011-10-25T16:44:45.449-04:00http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0516dc...http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0516dc6d-44dd-4f27-a271-85569ce0c4f2<br /><br />Nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.com