tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post2689054358863801131..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: Fractal Countdown: December 30, 2011pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-33765523102482731672011-12-30T21:43:25.059-05:002011-12-30T21:43:25.059-05:00Would you like to exchange links? I have added you...Would you like to exchange links? I have added your site to mine. http://stockmarketcommentaries.blogspot.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-79739024283251782472011-12-30T20:35:49.412-05:002011-12-30T20:35:49.412-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.letsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-5050308670120420462011-12-30T19:35:00.130-05:002011-12-30T19:35:00.130-05:0088, depending on how you play the forecast, I thin...88, depending on how you play the forecast, I think you could bag as many as you like. How many Jan 113 SPY puts did you buy today at .20?pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-90917094804573147662011-12-30T19:24:21.079-05:002011-12-30T19:24:21.079-05:00PW,
I know you are busy, but if you ever have the ...PW,<br />I know you are busy, but if you ever have the spare time to create a chart that might help me bag a baroness it would be greatly appreciated.<br />Thanks, 88letsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-88725965911507667562011-12-29T11:38:25.689-05:002011-12-29T11:38:25.689-05:00PW,
Thanks for your effort. I read your blog f...PW,<br /> Thanks for your effort. I read your blog few times a day to catch your updates. It has been most insightful. A few questions to ask you:<br />1) what do you feel is the most likely target for this decline before it bounces significantly? I remember your gartley targets were : 1121 (0.786),1015 (1.272),940(1.618), and 722 (2.618). Are they still valid?<br />2) what will the dollar index be if we hit your target? 88,89,90, or even higher?<br />3) What do you think of gold? Do you think it will crash with the rise of the dollar? or do you think it will be a safe haven with the market crashing (this happened in Aug)?<br />Would really appreciate your thoughts on these topics. Thanks.curiousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-65327260126305494252011-12-29T02:32:51.835-05:002011-12-29T02:32:51.835-05:00Mark, glad to oblige. I'll need to spend som...Mark, glad to oblige. I'll need to spend some more time with the long term forecast before answering your question -- hopefully this weekend. Please feel free to remind me Friday afternoon if I haven't addressed it yet.<br /><br />88, thanks for the feedback. I look at them pretty much the same way.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-21498023715212341652011-12-28T15:24:18.566-05:002011-12-28T15:24:18.566-05:00PW,
I find your graphs stunningly beautiful, scary...PW,<br />I find your graphs stunningly beautiful, scary and everything else the universe is offering. Especially the VIX. Because I am not much of a trader, it is artwork for me. <br />Thanksletsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-25374445917053852062011-12-28T13:41:03.536-05:002011-12-28T13:41:03.536-05:00Thanks for the link to the '350 path'. Sca...Thanks for the link to the '350 path'. Scary prospect indeed! If that plays out (I know these things rarely go exactly to plan), but even if you're close, what are you thinking could be the ultimate low?<br /><br />Thanks again.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18267668803533781255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-35846945243606773832011-12-28T10:28:09.569-05:002011-12-28T10:28:09.569-05:00Mark, regarding a success rate, I couldn't say...Mark, regarding a success rate, I couldn't say. I've seen some statistics that suggest harmonics are successful about 70% of the time, which seems about right to me. As you know, I combine them with chart pattern and other technical analysis, and I believe it generally enhances the odds of catching major moves.<br /><br />In September, I posted a long-term forecast showing a path to 350 for SPX.<br /><br />http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/09/path-to-350.html<br /><br />Your question is a good reminder to dust that off and see where we are now that we've settled into some channels that I feel pretty confident about.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-74341671315377621122011-12-28T10:21:16.639-05:002011-12-28T10:21:16.639-05:00Dill, Mitch, Scotty, 88...thanks for your observat...Dill, Mitch, Scotty, 88...thanks for your observations. With the market finally selling off a bit this morning, I've got my fingers crossed.<br /><br />Vincent, great question re QE3. I wish I were more certain, but IMO the fed probably recognizes by now that they're running out of options for juicing the economy. They can certainly juice markets, as past QE's have shown; but, as LTRO demonstrated in Euroland, the liquidity doesn't necessarily find its way into the broader economy. We need real job growth, an end to the real estate crash and reduced debt levels. And, injecting cash into the banking system hasn't yet, nor will it, accomplish any of those goals.<br /><br />Will they try again? I imagine so. But the elections are nearly a year away, and they're probably wary of jumping the gun and having it come undone too soon. I would imagine the ideal timing would be more like early summer.<br /><br />As to the form, "twist" was a dud. Rates can't be lowered much more, and will already be lower if a market crash does occur in the interim. I guess that leaves a repeat of QE2, which will surely face immense political backlash this time (notice how we haven't heard much about the US debt problems lately?)pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-14856674014494479902011-12-28T10:06:12.556-05:002011-12-28T10:06:12.556-05:00Thanks, all, for the kind words and well-wishes. ...Thanks, all, for the kind words and well-wishes. We had a simple and lovely Christmas celebration this year. I hope you all did as well.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-48685114984305097142011-12-28T08:24:03.609-05:002011-12-28T08:24:03.609-05:00Hi,
If you had to estimate, what % success would ...Hi,<br /><br />If you had to estimate, what % success would you give to your methodology over the past few years in foretelling major market moves? I know it's difficult to estimate, but I was wondering if there was a 'hit rate' you've found over the last few years.<br /><br />BTW, I'm as sure as I can be that the S&P is going to reach 500 or lower (even 400), but I'm thinking it could happen any time from 2013 to 2017 (most likely in 2014), based purely on fundamentals. Your view?<br /><br />Thanks for your efforts - they make very interesting reading!Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18267668803533781255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-8170915451329826872011-12-23T19:35:51.051-05:002011-12-23T19:35:51.051-05:00The s&p broke a critical trendline to the upsi...The s&p broke a critical trendline to the upside, didn't it? I would think that would be bullish.letsgomakepancakeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10882715062500074023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-26509645973038514542011-12-23T17:12:37.053-05:002011-12-23T17:12:37.053-05:00Merry Christmas !!
Scotty
http://markethighsand...Merry Christmas !!<br /><br />Scotty<br /><br /><br />http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/update-12-23-2011-merry-christmas-happy-hannukah-to-all/sammyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13112018154461390396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-8067733108520538982011-12-23T05:25:15.839-05:002011-12-23T05:25:15.839-05:00Dear Pebble:
Thank you for your research and blog....Dear Pebble:<br />Thank you for your research and blog. How do predict the effect of QE3 and its timing? Do you have any ideas on what QE3 may be or may consist of?<br />Merry Christmas to you and your loved one's.vincent p.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10685094818106844150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-68806469783612744672011-12-22T17:32:25.433-05:002011-12-22T17:32:25.433-05:00PWriter
26th is closed. May have a day or so up ne...PWriter<br />26th is closed. May have a day or so up next week.<br />Gold is leading the way.<br />"Advance Warning"-- Gold Sell Signal<br />http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/22/update-12-22-spx-gold-advance-warning-sell-signal/<br />Merry Christmas<br />Scottysammyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13112018154461390396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-8885754559717220442011-12-22T15:26:55.852-05:002011-12-22T15:26:55.852-05:00It's also worth noting, I think, that the firs...It's also worth noting, I think, that the first move off the 1347 late July high was to more or less stand pat around 1347 for a couple of days before the sell-off began in earnest.mitchkellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06208349406594622317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-57036609188040927232011-12-22T15:12:33.063-05:002011-12-22T15:12:33.063-05:00Pebble - Take a look at SPX weekly candles over th...Pebble - Take a look at SPX weekly candles over the last three weeks and compare those the your the one's in July ... the fractal is even more evident as the candlestick patterns are nearly identical.<br /><br />Once again thanks for continuing to post your insight. Hope you and your family have a merry Christmasdillzs99https://www.blogger.com/profile/08134062644817552023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-54054046846949772692011-12-22T15:07:57.186-05:002011-12-22T15:07:57.186-05:00Merry christmas Pebble.
Thank you.
I love your ...Merry christmas Pebble.<br /><br />Thank you. <br /><br />I love your analysis<br />and your blog is my must read everyday.mtilmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09268779403821511085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-53344853066287548502011-12-22T14:27:26.794-05:002011-12-22T14:27:26.794-05:00There are indeed many of us who love your work and...There are indeed many of us who love your work and your analysis has been fascinating and enlightening.<br /><br />Hope your other projects are going well.<br /><br />Merry Christmas!<br /><br />Tom.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10236709465932299548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-28217993322387024842011-12-22T12:02:58.674-05:002011-12-22T12:02:58.674-05:00This has been an absolutely amazing call to monito...This has been an absolutely amazing call to monitor. Thanks, congrats, & happy holidays.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-83854566713564869062011-12-22T11:45:15.356-05:002011-12-22T11:45:15.356-05:00Merry Christmas Pebble:
To you and your family hav...Merry Christmas Pebble:<br />To you and your family have a safe and blessed holiday! Thank you for all of your dedication; there are many of us who love your work.MaskedAsASheephttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17268388498002555929noreply@blogger.com