tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post1757763802590042540..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: Charts I'm Watching: March 20, 2012pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-60184945318076299592012-03-20T19:03:01.949-04:002012-03-20T19:03:01.949-04:00Perhaps so, but I don't consider myself knowle...Perhaps so, but I don't consider myself knowledgeable enough about how the futures will react to be able to say with any certainty. The performance of each last month (Jan 18) doesn't seem to offer much help. I do remember just before the plunge last July, when VIX options were dirt cheap relative to VIX itself because the futures were so cheap. Bottom line, VIX is overpriced unless there's a big drop coming. If it is, UVXY will prove to have been cheap.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-89668864609408503022012-03-20T17:53:11.921-04:002012-03-20T17:53:11.921-04:00i follow you....does this stuff balance itself out...i follow you....does this stuff balance itself out eventually?<br /><br />and if it does balance itself out, wouldn't this be a great buying opportunity of UVXY regard considering the approaching expiration pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-46209623088408966222012-03-20T17:43:31.409-04:002012-03-20T17:43:31.409-04:00Not sure why Disqus isn't nesting comments pro...Not sure why Disqus isn't nesting comments properly. It has to be the buggiest software ever.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-66069454778072469632012-03-20T17:41:59.568-04:002012-03-20T17:41:59.568-04:00I discovered them the same way. Saw how trend lin...I discovered them the same way. Saw how trend lines off the 2007 highs kept influencing prices in 2011 and asked myself "what the heck?" The fun part is seeing how lines parallel to them have ripple effects throughout time and price. Of course, they're like any other trend line -- they're not always an absolute barrier to price movement; sometimes just an impediment, complete with back tests, etc.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-69857793144092396122012-03-20T17:37:42.213-04:002012-03-20T17:37:42.213-04:00 It's the VIX's version of a short squeeze... It's the VIX's version of a short squeeze. VIX futures have been stuck in a contango for a while, meaning distant month futures are priced higher than front month. ETF's like UVXY and TVIX track the futures, not spot, prices. So, when the ETF's are rebalanced on VIX expiration day (tomorrow is the next) the high cost of having overpriced insurance on the market really hits home. I say overpriced because actual volatility has been in the range of 8% ytd, while VIX itself is twice that. <br /><br />http://www.etftrends.com/2012/02/three-things-you-should-know-about-vix-etfs/pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-16816045310108005422012-03-20T17:32:49.421-04:002012-03-20T17:32:49.421-04:00Hi PW,
I had never looked at a fan line before co...Hi PW,<br /><br />I had never looked at a fan line before coming to your site but they are really interesting things.<br />Have a look at the attached image. It is almost scary how price is following those fib levels... turning on a dime. (And the folks on tv imply that news drives stock movement).pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-90788325273419586112012-03-20T16:30:03.125-04:002012-03-20T16:30:03.125-04:00what the heck is going on with UVXY ???? what the heck is going on with UVXY ???? pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.com