tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post1678632285090710901..comments2023-07-28T11:28:55.153-04:00Comments on pebblewriter: 2011 v 2008: Day 121pebblewriterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-39671133705582126132011-10-24T10:01:51.393-04:002011-10-24T10:01:51.393-04:00Hi and thank you for understanding my thoughts and...Hi and thank you for understanding my thoughts and also putting together today's fabulous dollar discussion. I also find EWP lacking on short term forecasting and am looking for additional tools now that I no longer can work the market daily. I have come to rely on EWP for direction and thrust indications and was just looking to enter some thoughts and perhaps get a little feedback. Anyway, appreciate you and your blog.Adventurerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10780661601043674802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-14456420027724741182011-10-23T18:42:10.433-04:002011-10-23T18:42:10.433-04:00Hi Adventurer: If you're looking for a good ex...Hi Adventurer: If you're looking for a good explanation of how EW applies or doesn't, I am definitely NOT the guy. I have yet to see a consistently successful application of EW to short term forecasting. Although, I do find it helpful as a tool for verification and understanding of where we are in the big picture. And, those who have a better handle on it than I probably have a different take. So, I'm going to respectfully pass on the EW question.<br /><br />I did just put up a new post re the dollar and the euro, so check that out for my thoughts there. I agree that a concurrent rise in both stocks and the dollar, at least in the same time frame, is unlikely.<br /><br />I'm working on my stock forecast, and hope to have a new post out by tomorrow morning.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-4986763460325189572011-10-23T17:15:52.417-04:002011-10-23T17:15:52.417-04:00Hi,
I am new to this blog--Pebble, I just want to ...Hi,<br />I am new to this blog--Pebble, I just want to say thank you for your clear and educational writings.<br /><br />I read up on ending diagonals--this formation makes sense out of the 1074 low was the w5 of the whole move down from May. So even though labeling the count in the past may be academic, here some interesting points according to Prechter "Elliott Wave Principle":<br /><br />ED "occurs primarily in the fifth wave position when the preceding wave has gone 'too far too fast'."<br />(can also be the end of the C wave corrective but Prechter says this is far less common)<br /><br />"In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement."<br /><br />"Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonals all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead."<br /><br />To me, the last two points are most compelling. Means the most probable count is that we are currently starting wC up of this A-B-C move off 1074. We have met all criteria for the first A wave; also the B wave as a 3-3-5 flat. Monday we may complete the impulse up of w1 of C probably near the channel line forming Oct 12 through now or 1245 and then reverse in its w2. This w2 would be short-day or so and probably not go much below 1190-1200 based on the channel (I don't quite understand the harmonic patterns this site discusses-would love to, not discrediting them at all- or how they predict low of 1140-50). So there are places to look for trades (or set stops in case something else is happening). If C = A then could end as high as 1340 and sometime near end of 2011. And all that seems to make sense for a presidential election concept as the $SPX would be up over its start. C is a third wave so look for volume to start picking up as we start w3 of C (probably toward the end of next week) note the lack of convincing volume during this short B wave.<br /><br />There are definitely places of resistance and other possibilities including a top of 1258 for 61.8% retrace.<br /><br />My main concern with all of this is that the $USD has greatly influenced this market and for years now. My current $USD count has it completing a w2 correction and poised to pop in a w3. Just seems like *both* scenarios: burst of up for $SPX at the same time as a burst of up for $USD, are unlikely. Maybe some thoughts?Adventurerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10780661601043674802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-64634737633086223202011-10-22T22:13:28.479-04:002011-10-22T22:13:28.479-04:00i just stumbled upon this particular pattern after...i just stumbled upon this particular pattern after I noticed that corrective trend lines within a larger trend often converge into a center like fan lines in reverse. After fitting a few fib arcs to trends around the centers that I noticed, I started researching the technique on the web. Many have noticed price reactionsat arcs after a move into or out through fib arcs. The 20 yr chart I posted is the best (large degree) proof I have found that this is not random when plotted correctly on the proper time/price scale. Most are not convinced though. I posted it here because Pebble seems to be open minded about various chart techniques and is looking for a big down move that is possible according to this chart.<br /><br />Looking back the bounce at the .786 in 2008 was obviously Minor degree and I'm not sure if the current bounce is Minor or Intermediate degree, but either way it could be ending now as it is 3 months old under the flat count.<br /><br />The note about .382 is implying that we are int the same situation as July/Aug/2008 where there is no arc underneath to provide major support for a correction. If the market somehow stays above 1000 until 3/1/08 it could grab the .382 arc between 950-1050 and enter a major correction upward. In other words If the large Minor 3 Pebble is looking for then this concentric wave pattern is not showing any support other than the .500 arc around the 700-750 area in the next several months.<br /><br />I now consider these arcs to be analogous to rings of pressure waves on a weather map. As far as a link, just type fib arc into Google.moslofhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08409089989018480766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-24222049524200223522011-10-22T13:42:19.216-04:002011-10-22T13:42:19.216-04:00moslof,
I have never seen the concentric wave...moslof,<br /><br /> I have never seen the concentric wave pattern before. Do you mind explaining a bit more what you mean when you said The .382 arc won't be there for support until 3/1/12. Is 0.382 arc the support? When you saidThe SPX summer '08 bounce at the .786 lasted 2 months, are you inferring that is kind of like what we have now, after plunging to a 1100 from 1350 in Aug, we are merely "bouncing" for 2 months, before the next big plunge, kind of like Mar 09? Do you mind posting a link where I can read up some info about the wave pattern? Thankscuriousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-30825942971732371402011-10-22T10:38:29.265-04:002011-10-22T10:38:29.265-04:00curious: see notes on currencies above. And, yes, ...curious: see notes on currencies above. And, yes, we're due for a drop early in the week, followed by a rebound for wave C IF minor 2 didn't complete this week. Some believe it did, in which case we immediately turn down (seemed too fast to me.) As far as a scenario after C, we'll be in Minor 3 of Intermediate 1 of Primary 3. It should be a more vicious plunge than we saw in late July.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-29742057426965693292011-10-21T21:59:14.472-04:002011-10-21T21:59:14.472-04:00Thanks again for sharing your work. Thought you mi...Thanks again for sharing your work. Thought you might want to consider this 20 year concentric wave pattern (and current closeup view). Chart Notes:<br /> The SPX summer '08 bounce at the .786 lasted 2 months<br /> The NDX touched the .618 and was repelled on 10/18. <br /> The .382 arc won't be there for support until 3/1/12.<br /><br /><br />http://screencast.com/t/cPLvtsKINwlN<br />http://screencast.com/t/hrd1Ariomoslofhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08409089989018480766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-71467689522074932872011-10-21T19:01:56.223-04:002011-10-21T19:01:56.223-04:00the USD was extremely weak today, the Yen made new...the USD was extremely weak today, the Yen made new high versus the USD. From your previous post about the USD rally, do you think the USD has broken down and is on its way to test the yearly low, or is it a move to shake out the overcrowded long dollar trades before its major rally? As for AUDUSD, has it broken out of the channel you drew earlier, or you see it as a final thrust before it reverses? <br /> Just to clarify, do you mean you are expecting the market to drop early in the week before rallying back to around 1240? What do you see might be the scenario after the C wave?curiousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-51780742184279698522011-10-21T18:29:04.689-04:002011-10-21T18:29:04.689-04:00Great question. I'm working on it. The bigge...Great question. I'm working on it. The biggest problem I have is the speed of this corrective wave. While I originally thought we'd be approaching 1200-1250 in December, we're pretty much there right now. Off the top of my head, I'd say we're looking at some kind of flat -- with a nice strong B wave Monday-Wednesday of next week and a C wave that doesn't go much higher than here. But I want to play with it this weekend, start from scratch and redraw all the channels, etc. for a better sense of the timing.pebblewriterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11324367600914701000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6135767210188526078.post-76129309327428201332011-10-21T15:39:38.426-04:002011-10-21T15:39:38.426-04:00Do you you think we will end the year up due to se...Do you you think we will end the year up due to seasonal bias or do you think we will peak in early december and close out the year with a new low?KFrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11334972725773957113noreply@blogger.com